Saving For The Finals

It will be the end of the road for either the Nets or the Blazers on Wednesday. Or both. It is highly unlikely that both will win Game 5 on the road. That will be difficult as the Heat, the Spurs, and the home crowd will be looking to finish their series off. So, sort your remaining Nets and Blazers according to average PRA, and pick the top guy. For me, that would be Deron Williams.


Now, let's talk a little about the Conference Finals and The Finals. Due to the zigzagging that happened in Round 1, many of us have already used players from winning teams that will go through the next round. For most of us, that would be about two to three from the Pacers, and maybe one from the Thunder.

For the West Finals, there will be no problem, as the Thunder+Spurs still have plenty of options that will give you 20+ PRA for when that goes 6 games, and not-so-bad 15+ PRA players that potentially get you 20+ at the right time.

For the East Finals, maybe you'll be okay with your picks on Games 1 (e.g. my Lance Stephenson) and 2 (e.g. my George Hill), and maybe on Game 3 (e.g. Roy Hibbert) as well. But for the other games, options on the Pacers are not looking good : Watson (10 PRA), Scola (9), Turner (6), Mahinmi (5) and so on. That is when you start plucking from the Heat roster. Looking at the Heat's top seven, there we have the Big Three (39+25+22), Chalmers (15), Allen (13), Andersen (11), Cole (9). Since the end of that Heat list is much better than the Pacers' options, you can basically swap Watson with Allen, for example. And since we all will eventually pick a Heat, it will be okay to swap Watson with LeBron James. Why not? Especially if you think LeBron can have better PRA against the Pacers than their Finals opponent.

For the Finals, you will be left of about one or two of the Heat Big Three, and what is left of the Spurs/Thunder. That would not be so bad. Part of the fun of the Finals in DTTF is trying to hit the fillers at the right time, and of course getting lucky. Based on experience on past Finals games, you will more or less maintain your percentile on 20 PRAs, go up +1% on 30+ PRAs, go down -1% on 15 PRAs, and about -2% on single-digit PRAs. Rise and fall in percentile is about doubled when are you are still below 90 percentile.

Worried about the final stretch? Don't. It's still May.