Saving For The Finals

It will be the end of the road for either the Nets or the Blazers on Wednesday. Or both. It is highly unlikely that both will win Game 5 on the road. That will be difficult as the Heat, the Spurs, and the home crowd will be looking to finish their series off. So, sort your remaining Nets and Blazers according to average PRA, and pick the top guy. For me, that would be Deron Williams.


Now, let's talk a little about the Conference Finals and The Finals. Due to the zigzagging that happened in Round 1, many of us have already used players from winning teams that will go through the next round. For most of us, that would be about two to three from the Pacers, and maybe one from the Thunder.

For the West Finals, there will be no problem, as the Thunder+Spurs still have plenty of options that will give you 20+ PRA for when that goes 6 games, and not-so-bad 15+ PRA players that potentially get you 20+ at the right time.

For the East Finals, maybe you'll be okay with your picks on Games 1 (e.g. my Lance Stephenson) and 2 (e.g. my George Hill), and maybe on Game 3 (e.g. Roy Hibbert) as well. But for the other games, options on the Pacers are not looking good : Watson (10 PRA), Scola (9), Turner (6), Mahinmi (5) and so on. That is when you start plucking from the Heat roster. Looking at the Heat's top seven, there we have the Big Three (39+25+22), Chalmers (15), Allen (13), Andersen (11), Cole (9). Since the end of that Heat list is much better than the Pacers' options, you can basically swap Watson with Allen, for example. And since we all will eventually pick a Heat, it will be okay to swap Watson with LeBron James. Why not? Especially if you think LeBron can have better PRA against the Pacers than their Finals opponent.

For the Finals, you will be left of about one or two of the Heat Big Three, and what is left of the Spurs/Thunder. That would not be so bad. Part of the fun of the Finals in DTTF is trying to hit the fillers at the right time, and of course getting lucky. Based on experience on past Finals games, you will more or less maintain your percentile on 20 PRAs, go up +1% on 30+ PRAs, go down -1% on 15 PRAs, and about -2% on single-digit PRAs. Rise and fall in percentile is about doubled when are you are still below 90 percentile.

Worried about the final stretch? Don't. It's still May.

45 comments:

  1. Not to mention the people that used all tbe superstars will fall I rankings odne the final come. I was looking at leaderboard and like too ten used heat pacers and thunder superstars already

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  2. I'm really looking forward to the conference finals. Pacers-Heat is the series we all wanted from the beginning. We all lost our faith in the Pacers, myself included, because of the Atlanta series (which looks like it was simply a bad matchup for the Pacers). All season I was cheering on the Pacers, I loved that team. Paul George is amazing. Even with all of their struggles, I envision the classic six or seven game series that we all were hoping for from the start. And you never know, maybe the Pacers take it. They match up well against the Heat, and always give them a good battle. The Heat haven't really played that great all season, other than LeBron who has been his usual self. As for tomorrow's pick, my best remaining options are Joe Johnson and Wesly Matthews. I also have Robin Lopez and Shaun Livingston in case of a surprise six game series. So clearly I go with the best player, and that would be Joe Johnson, but not by that much over Matthews. Johnson had most of his huge PRA against the Raptors, but he's been consistently decent against the Heat. Matthews has had a couple of stinkers, so I'll pass. Both games are equally likely to be a blow out, so there's no advantage in that sense. For tonight, really looking forward to Clippers vs. Thunder. This one should go seven games in my opinion. And the Clippers shouldn't be doubted as the ones who end up taking it, although I do think advantage Thunder, but not by that much.

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    1. I agree. I also fell for the Pacers will be eliminated in the first round trap. Using both David West and Paul George, then using George Hill in Round #2. Normally a #1 seed (Indiana) facing an #8 seed (Atlanta), you would be all over picking Atlanta players, certainly not Indiana players. So with Indiana playing so horrendously at the end of the year, and their dismal start vs. Atlanta in the beginning of that series, I decimated the Indiana roster, and only played 1 Hawk player. So somewhere down the line, I and many others, are going to pay for that, by having to use some undesirables, or pick from an advancing team's roster.

      Anyone not using any or very few Indiana players, is definitely looking the best of anyone right now. Unless you used too many players from advancing teams. Then those people pretty much already eliminated themselves.

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    2. I think the Pacer debacle in DTTF is not yet over. With them owning Con Finals homecourt advantage and Hibbert's phoenix act, they will tease us by winning a few, forcing us to take more Heat players than we should, then eventually losing out anyway... making the Pacers the Bringer of Chaos to DTTF.

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    3. Honestly for venggence of the Nets and Wizards and DTTF I'd love a Heat sweep, but it will probably be Heat in 6.

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  3. I'm going HOT tonight with Beal......
    .. Majority rules :)

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  4. Gonna side with Ariza tonight. Still so disappointed with Aldridge last night. 23. Horrible. Would expect that in points alone plus ten or so boards.

    *shakes head*

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  5. I left a similar post on the previous page before this blog was created, but for those who only look at the newest blog.
    With Portland winning, I now have 4 options instead of 2 for tomorrow: Deron Williams, Paul Pierce, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews.
    Which of those 4 will have the best PRA is the question. One thing is for sure, both the Nets and Trailblazers will lose their series.

    As for today both series look like they could cause problems. I've said enough about WAS/IND but OKC/LAC is 2-2 meaning that their series is reduced to a scary best of 3.
    If the Thunder were to lose G5, they'll go back to LA with the possibility of elimination. If the Clippers were to win (in 6, I don't see em winning G7 in OKC),
    I'd have to use KD and RW in G5 and 6 to avoid leaving one of them unpicked. However if the Thunder win the series (which I think they will) AND get all the way to the finals,
    using either KD or RW will leave me in unrecoverable shape.

    With WAS/IND, it's bad enough to have guessed wrong on that series (until the Wiz lost by 22 in G3), but with this series ending in FIVE, I'll only have used 1 out of 4 legitamate Wizards (Gortat is too invisible prone) but 3 decent players left unpicked is bad enough. Even after the Wiz lost G3 and it became time to POP open the Wiz can, I couldn't do that on their G4 day because I have to use CP so he or BG who are reliable 30+ picks don't get left unused.

    Now here's the scariest combination: If the Wizards lose in 5 AND the Clips/Thunder go to 7, I'll end up using BG in G6 and have no one for G7.
    This is where the schedule sucks out of 8 Wizards/Nets/Trailblazers players, 6 go to waste assuming that all 3 of those series in the 1st chances (G5s).
    Meanwhile with no IND/WAS G6, BG will have to be used (if Thunder win G5) and if the Clippers win I'll have no one for G7.

    Sorry Tangent, I have nothing against the Pacers but I am pissed that I was tricked into their season possibly ending in R1 and
    now getting to R3 has put me on thin ropes with the ECFs. Imagine if the Pacers
    (which will be fabulous for you, other Pacer fans and any super Heat hater) advance to the Finals AND go to 7 there. How many scrubs will I have to use?
    3? 4? 5? Crazy playoffs!

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    1. I hope Clips-Thunder series don't go 7 games, coz I will lose BG CP KD RW. Whoever wins G5 must win G6.

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    2. I wouldn't say tricked. We can't be tricked in this game, we make decisions based on what we see and live with the consequences. The Pacers are a #1 seed. Investing heavily in their downfall came with very well known risks. No tricks. Just a struggling team who seems to have righted this ship.

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  6. Love these playoffs!!! Sure, the second round hasn't even come close to being as amazing as the first one was but it has been the most unpredictable and exciting D2TF yet. Last week was tough with the PRA's being all over the place and with all the late comebacks in games and series turnarounds... but, although it makes it a lot harder to pick, it also makes this game so much more interesting and if you gambled on the Pacers, like I did (only used Lance), and got lucky (Aldridge in Game 1 and Ariza in Game 3) from time to time you're in pretty good shape. No need to freak out over some relatively bad picks (Wall with 20 PRA, Joe Johnson with 20 PRA etc.) because basically EVERYBODY was doing bad on these days unless you picked one of the elite players (KD, PG, LBJ.....) so that evens it out. Only dropped about 1-3 percentiles on these "bad days", so no biggie..

    Like the blog entry Taong, especially the part about picking the role players in the finals. Huge part of this game, very underrated.

    I like my chances moving forward though. From the teams that I think will advance (SA, OKC - MIA, IND) I've only used Stephenson and unfortunately, KD. Only time I chickened out and didn't trust my gut (picked him in Game 6 of the MEM series. 48 PRA)

    Sitting at 93%, going with Beal tonight, Batum tomorrow and - if the Thunder win Game 5 as I expect and hope them to - Blake on Thursday.

    Best of luck to all of you and THUNDER UP!
    Shoutout to Taong for the great blog, keep up the great work.

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    1. Thanks Silas, I appreciate it.

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    2. So funny Silas, I also have only used Stephenson and KD and we used KD on the same day. Although I'm at 84% haven't quite been as lucky as you with my other picks. I also have Beal, then Batum, but then Chris Paul (assuming Clips lose).

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  7. If the Clippers win, a lot of us will be done. Imagine the worst nightmare for most of us, the 2014 NBA Finals is Pacers/Clippers, they'll be no one left to pick! 7 games? 7 scrubs!

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  8. Taong, the one thing I don't understand about your post is the Thunder having several good 20+ PRA options. I have no info in front of me (haven't looked at the averages), but it seems to me that besides KD and RW (which most of us have already picked one of), Ibaka is the only somewhat reliable 20+ PRA guy. Perkins and Sefalosha are total PRA deadbeats (both starters) and some games Jackson or Butler step up but certainly not to be relied on as they're easily under 10 PRA some games.

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    1. Jerry, I meant combined Thunder and Spurs. Re-reading it, you are correct it sounded like each of them. Corrected. Should be Spurs+Thunder. So assuming 6 games: KD Westbrook Ibaka Parker Timmy kahwi. Potential other picks: splitter manu reggiejackson

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  9. Also, in addition to the blog entry, I looked at the HeatBig3 performance last year. They all had far better stats vs Spurs than the Pacers. So that's another obstacle... will you pick a Big3 in the Conf Finals?

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    1. Won't be picking LeBron until it is an elimination game for the Heat.

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  10. I'm still mad at LMA performance yesterday, 23pra are you kidding me? I think they should give everyone a extra 20pra because of the heartache,he could have atleast got 30 for us. too make it worse I felt Blazers would win and should have went with Batum unlike LMA who just ran away from everything yesterday, he was lucky he got 23 he was that bad.

    Round 1 I scored well round 2 has been a shocker,all my picks have just reached 20pra and I have somehow picked all of them on their worst games. Not very happy I understand it's luck but this is overboard it's effecting my excitement in these playoffs now.

    After all that moaning I'm going with Beal who will stink it up this game now that I'm picking him so stay away. Also I hate the Pacers...just add that in.

    HAHAHA I need a snickers.. :(

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    1. You just jinxed yourself..Beal is stinking it up LOL

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  11. Looks like Marcin Gortat actually showed up tonight after a two day vanishing act. I looked there based on his first two games, but could not touch him after those last two.

    Naturally Bradley Beal has gotten off to a slow start, since I picked him tonight.

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    1. it's because of me

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    2. the 3% who picked Gortat should be jumping right now. they hit the DTTF lotto jackpot. 29 PRA at the half.

      beal still on course.

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    3. You are so right about the jackpot Taong, 29 at HALF by the same player who got 20 in all of G3 and 4 combined!

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    4. I took Ariza, he's currently in 2nd place of the 3 big picked Wizards as Nene only got 2%. Wall has 18, Ariza 16 and Beal 13, all 3 can still have very good games, let's hope the Wizards can figure out how to play in the 2nd half.

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    5. ouch, beal missing shots. wall making em

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    6. Good thing I went with wall..hes having a great game and since the wizards are going to win this one..I get to use ariza at their next game..perfect

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    7. can't complain. beal got 30.
      happy for those who got wall at 37, congrats!

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    8. I got the raw end of the deal, Ariza got 25 and this big thing is WTH was he in the 4th Q? I was thinking he'd get to 35 or so and he never touched the ball. I'm glad the Wizards won though, a lot of people in the conversation did not believe me when they were claiming that the Pacers had turned it around. No insult to you Tangent but that dose of reality was needed. Sadly the Pacers will still win the series but at least it did not end in 5.

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    9. I hope the Wizards can still pullout the upset and win the series. Pick Beal over Wall tonight. I might miss out on picking Wall in the next game b/c I have to pick either KD or CP3 in a elimination game.

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    10. @Grady, you may get your lucky break. With Wiz winning today, and potentially Game 6 too, you can have chance to pick Wall in Game 7 :)

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    11. I'm not getting any hopes up but I was glad that they came out, didn't lay down and took it hard to the Pacers! I have to decide between Wall and Beal as long as the Thunder win tonight. I'm taking the risk and banking on all home teams in the rest of the Clippers/Thunder series since I've used CP and then I'll use BG for G7.

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    12. Yep, dose of reality served. The Pacers are just one of those enigmas. They seem to win the games everybody expects them to lose, and lose games they are expected to win. As long as the Thunder and Clippers are playing, I'm not touching the Eastern Conference. I'll use whoever survives in the next round. Finally, the Wizards I have been expecting since Game 1 have shown up. I think the Wizards are using their magic to make Hibbert and Gortat disappear then reappear!

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    13. And Paul George. Limiting him to 18 PRA has pure magic. I can safely say I have no ability to make predictions on who will win games and series - this round has had me go back and forth on who I think will win. That is pretty awesome though. I've been very fortunate that I've somehow managed to predict players well. I think it must be dumb luck.

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  12. and game is over. garbage time.
    let's hear it about 'em pacers...

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    1. Ah yeah! Just when we think the Pacers are back, the Pacers are back, just not the way we thought they were back, if that makes any sense at all.

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  13. I had Beal for an average 30pra tonight(four more pts than I had with Dwill last night).... I'll take it... :/

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  14. Bradley Beal made a nice recovery to come up with 30 PRA, so that part worked well. The part that did not work was Indiana getting destroyed on their home court in a close out game.

    I absolutely hate the worthless Indiana Pacers this year. They really are a disgrace at times. They definitely need to fire the coach at the end of the year, as this team definitely lacks focus.

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    1. Marcin Gortat put up a LeBron-esque 49 PRA though after two very dismal games. Gortat was definitely, easily tonight's star of the night, unless someone has a bigger game in the Clipper/OKC game. Still it was a great pick for anyone going with Gortat. Congrats!

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  15. Clippers up 86-80 after 3, if they go onto win the Thunder go into that same down 2-3 going on the road position that they were in against Memphis. One thing is for sure, the Thunder aren't playing the Pacers, this was the least predictable series from the start and I maybe about to lose the chance to pick one of the best players in basketball.

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  16. Did anybody just catch the epic win by the Thunder, hope looked done for when they were down by 11 with 3½ minutes to go and 7 with 45 seconds left. I gave up, then checked for the disappointing DTTF score and found the miraculous surprise 105-104 Thunder! Capped off by 3 Westbrook FTs. I feel bad for the Clippers and their fans especially with the Sterling controversy and don't want to sound selfish by saying this but that was a DTTF season saving comeback. Crazy, crazy playoffs!

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    1. It was actually as big as 13 with 4 minutes to go (101-88).

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  17. Thunder UP baby !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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    1. that was the most rigged game ive ever seen in the nba by far

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