Strategy: Hottest Pick

Let's start off this post with my Day 2 pick.


Al Jefferson. What is not to like about this pick? He will give you the 30+ PRA you seek, plus you know the Heat will eventually win this series. I know I will never be more comfortable with a pick this round than this one. Al carved up the Heat defense this season, and that can be attributed to the Heat's relative lack of size in the paint. It is rare that a team adjusts early in a series, so I expect Al to be his usual banger against the Heat.


Early in the playoffs, the strategy of "going with the flow" is something to be considered. Especially with those new to the game, looking at the hot picks first is a good guide. For those experienced in this game, it's a starting point for internal debate. Surely some of those people know something that pushed them to pick that certain player. That's when you start to analyze, and at the end of it realize how smart or flawed that pick is.

This date's hottest pick Al Jefferson is a no brainer. 30% of us are picking him, and the second hottest pick is not even close at 10%. I challenge everyone (and myself) to think of a reason not to pick him. 

And if you do not like to pick him, here are the alternatives:

Dirk Nowitzki. This year's Spurs are the hungriest I've seen them since the year they won it with David Robinson. Last year's heartbreaker made them the monster they are now. Imagine a crash of rhinos stampeding over the Texas terrain, and there stands Dirk in the way. It will not be a pleasant sight.

Monta Ellis. Monta has been great in his playoff Day 1s and Game 1s before. Granted this is a new team and he doesn't carry all the load now, but he can be counted to rack the stat sheets from time to time. One thing's for sure, he's itching to win.

John Wall. I've been reading a lot of articles stating how this year's playoffs is a stage for John Wall finally going Super Saiyan mode. And I believe it. Look for him to burst out in his very first playoff game. Might be a good pick before the Bulls start adjusting and clamping him off.

With the Blazers-Rockets series, we should wait for two games before we touch it. While most pick the Rockets to come up on top, one can easily imagine a scenario that says otherwise. The Blazers may still do it. May.

By the way, crazy Day 1. Upsets galore.

27 comments:

  1. you know what's crazier? its Atlanta beating Indiana by a comfortable margin. The spacing that their three point shooters are putting in is making Indiana's defense look bad. With all the open holes inside, Jeff Teague is having a field day in the office.

    And I agree with your pick as I am also leaning on picking Al Jeff but might switch to Kemba or Monta

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    1. Hey THCH, wassup wassup!

      Yup Teague hoisted the most attempts. Look for Pacers to adjust though. Stupid third quarter too, some visiting teams do that -- rush in while the crowd is still out buying beer and fries, and say "home court my a.."

      Kemba is not a bad choice. Although he stunk up his last two games against the Heat.

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  2. Big Al is hands down the best pic. Taong said it best. No reason not to pick him at this juncture.

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  3. The ONLY reason I'm not taking Al is simply to not roll with the crowd.... .....If I know I will be taking him(or any other highest percentage player) at some point, I would just like the chance, at trying to beat the majority...

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  4. btw I'm taking LaMarcus Aldridge.... only 5% of us... :)
    ....There was only 1% of us that took Klay Thompson with our first pick.
    ....Low percentage good players and staying away from the crowd is my strategy
    ....
    .....Thunder up !

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    1. Yep, the cold pick strategy. Used it sometimes last year in the Finals. Not much early in the playoffs.

      Btw, pick from the team who you think will exit the earliest. May I suggest Kemba Walker?

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    2. What do you mean by "cold pick" ?
      ....btw... all the players I pick are from teams I think will e exiting early.. :)

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    3. Cold pick = not the hot pick
      :)
      Google: coldest pick nba blog
      ;)

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    4. I feel like it's important to play the game with the best overall strategy for highest numbers & to not get caught up with who the majority of others are picking or not picking. Unless it's in the Finals and you're simply trying to edge a victory in your league, I wouldn't recommend always going against the grain with picks. I did it some last year and would end up really being bummed when 30% of the league all got a big number from someone and the person I picked performed less than optimally.

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    5. Hello Jerry...
      ....I understand where you are coming from...
      ....I agree with the not being caught up in who the majority is and all.. and I'm not really... I have my own least of who I think will give me a great chance. Which by the way is very different than what I've have seen from others...
      ......So that being said I'm not worried that the majority scores more than who I picked that day because more than likely a very high percentage of those people will NOT pick some of the players I pick... like a Klay Thompson and such.. but you see, I WILL be picking those high percentage players(like everyone else)... just not on the day they pick them.... then it just comes down to hoping that I have a better day with them than when they do... and If I don't... well, then it just comes down to the comparison to whom ever they pick stacks up to my Klay Thompson(or who ever it may be)...
      .....So... I pick Klay Thompson, some took Stephen curry(who was hotter)... but the twist is... they will NOT pick Thompson more than likely(unless the series goes to 6 or 7 games) where as I WILL be taking Curry.. If I can get more out of Curry on my day then I'm cool.... If not I'm cool.. either way I got the high performance player... does it matter what day I take him as long as I get him>...(it does only if MY day he scores less) :)
      .....
      anyway...
      ..good luck to you...

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  5. I figured that is what you meant after I had posted... lol
    .....
    Nice blogging... :)

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  6. My logic is to avoid the Miami-Charlotte game altogether tomorrow. Al Jefferson will have an average game and Miami will come out guns-a-blazing. Better to go with Dirk or Aldridge tomorrow

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  7. Going with Kemba. Looking to use AL later in the series, and I just don't see Charlotte taking down the Heat in this series. I want to wait to see how game one of the Portland/Houston series plays out.

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    1. Hey jk202804 welcome. Go Al then Kemba later. Unless you have other reasons..

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  8. Also going with Al Jefferson today, although Monta is a nice sneaky pick for people looking to go against the majority. I think your article sums it up perfectly. If we learned anything from yesterday, right now it's finding where you are most confident in who's going to win. Stephen Curry was a great pick in theory, but then he played like a mere mortal and Golden State won. As much as it sucks, it's actually the thing I love most about this game, the sudden change in game plan after seeing how games play out. And with 3 road teams winning yesterday, there is a good chance one or two will be up 3-1 by the time the game 4's come to an end. This should get very interesting.

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    1. Hello tangent :)
      ....Yes Curry played like a mere mortal and that is one of the things I hope for when not going with the flow.. so now, when I take Curry later on I, I can hope he plays like a legend on the day I have him lol
      ....
      ...btw.. good luck to EVERYONE with their picks.. I love this game...
      ....See you all on the leader

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    2. I pre-picked Curry for Game 3 but that was before Day 1 started. With that Game 1 win, I scrapped the pick and looked somewhere else. Will wait until Warriors or Clippers win 2 games before I revisit that series.

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  9. Hi guys, great blog Taong, finally Nba playoffs are back! My doubt for this day is weather to pick Al or Aldridge. I have the feeling that tonight Miami will win easily and the Bobcats will rest their best players soon, maybe at the end of the third quarter, losing some points potential. Blazers Rockets is a tough matchup, i see a game 7 on the horizon, but every match should be balanced; for this reason i could keep Al for game 2 on wednesday, hoping for a more balanced game, and use aldridge tonight. Could be a good strategy, i'm thinking about it, even if Al is the hottest pick by far.

    Matteo from Italy

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    1. Brilliant Matteo! I honestly did not remember about players being rested on blowout games. It does happen, and did screw up a lot of picks in the past. However, blowout games are very hard to predict. If I am guessing correct, players are more likely to be rested on endgames after being 3-0 or 3-1 (hope lost, save players from injury).

      For me, blowout games are a small risk. If they do happen, then I'll just let out a primal scream and move on.

      But you're right, among all matches, blowout games are most likely to happen with the Heat-Bobcats series.

      Thanks for the reminder. It's something to think of, too.

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    2. Yeah that's the point Taong, in an unbalanced series like Miami Bobcats the blowout games are behind the corner. I see at least two of this games in the series, the problem is to predict when it's gonna happen. Could be Game 1 or game 2 or no one, but it's something to think of..Could be a gamble not to pick Al tonight, a big gamble, considering how many people picked him. And it's a bit early to take this risk, so i'll probably go with Al and wait to see how the blazers rockets series starts.

      Matteo

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  10. Holy playoffs. Three wins for the road teams. What does that mean for the strategies? Millsap was okay, but the Pacers have to pick up their game for the next few games.

    So, can you pick a Grizzlie on day 3? If they wouldn`t have started so bad they might have completed the road sweep on day 1. And we are heading for a day with only two matches.

    Tonight it is Ellis. As much I would love a surprise I am positive the Spurs (who I like) will eliminate the Mavs (who I love). Dirk at home and Ellis now.

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    1. Thunder just into revenge mode. Grizzlies will have a hard time. A Grizzly in Day Three.

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  11. All starter Mavs did pretty bad especially the ones people picked. Dirk and Ellis. Al Jefferson got hurt. He went to locker room. Hopefully he returns

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  12. Aldridge baby! 27 PRA at the half. Who else predicted this like 37 rebounds did!!

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    1. And at poor 5/14 shooting. We are indeed in the playoffs.

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    2. What a game by Aldridge. Incredible effort.

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