Pick A Grizzly

Three road wins already in Day 1 had us watching our steps with care too early in the playoffs. The Nets win was not too surprising as most of us planned for an upset anyway. The Hawks win was a surprise but I think most are convinced this is still Pacers'. Noone is just going to pick a Hawk in Game 2. The Warriors win however was a stinger, not only for those who already picked Stephen Curry, but also to most of us who have to change our plans and adapt to it.

There are only two games in Day 3, and the Warriors-Clippers predicament has limited our choices to just a Grizzlies pick.

Mike Conley. He had 11 assists in Game 1. With Nick Calathes out and little reliable backup, he should be able to have above average stats going forward.

Marc Gasol. He played a game high 45 minutes in Day 1, which tells us he is much needed there on the floor as their defensive anchor. We can expect a PRA in the high 20s from him.

Zach Randolph. He is the hottest pick for today. He gets the most shots in that team, and that plus his rebounding usually translate to a sureball 30+ PRA. Not meaning to get the hottest pick, I just want that 30 PRA.


As of this writing, there's still 22% picking Stephen Curry. Some of that may be pre-picked, so that will still go down. That Game 1 upset should really make us back off from that series for a while.

Anyone up for a Clippers pick?

48 comments:

  1. No way anyone should gamble on the warriors-clippers series Grizzles don't stand a chance against OKC. I'm thinking of going with Marc $ Gasol. He was pretty quiet I expect him to bounce back

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  2. Also if anyone is taking a clipper I would highly recommend taking Blake. He always bounces back in a huge way. Not to mention cp3 called him out. Just a heads up.

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    1. No doubt, Blake's going for it. Almost to the feeling that Clippers will win Game 2.

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  3. Ah, that´s more like it. Day 2 and I am already sick of it :)

    Mavs lost even thought they could have stolen the game, that´s a bummer. But Monta Ellis underperforming like that, that´s the icing on the cake. Grmbl. No surprsie here. DTTF is a very frustrating game.

    For day 3 it has to be a Grizzly. I am leaning towards Conley. Just a gut feeling, the same I had for Ellis.

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    1. If it's the same gut feeling, prolly don't pick Conley then, hehe

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    2. Just to share what happened in the Mavs game earlier...

      Carlisle talked in the sidelines and wished Craig Sager to get well. I thought that was fantastic. Mavs gonna win with that good juju!

      Then later Pop talked with non other than Sager's junior, and promised to be nice to Craig when he comes back. I thought ... sheeeks! Counter-juju!

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  4. Taong,
    Obviously your blogging rubbed off on me from last year as I already had pre-planned the except same first 3 picks as you. I know you changed yours from Curry but I've had Randolph from the start. In fact I have had my entire first round set and only change as I need to. Happy with my first 2 picks so far and expect the same from Randolph.

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    1. I expect likewise, same as how listening to our guys in the comments rubbed off on me through the years. I learned to pre-pick after failing to make a pick twice before -- one forgotten, one only barely got to pick on last game of the day. It's a bummer.

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  5. Honestly i think conley will perform better than randolph tomorrow. Randolph shot 12 free throws which is an anomaly and he also got 8 offensive rebounds which isnt going to happen every game. I had him during the regular season in fantasy espn and he usually follows up a good game with a dud the next day while conley should get 20+-10-and 3-6 rebounds

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    1. See I don't know about that, the Thunder really struck the pace they wanted in that first game. The Grizzlies will need to slow the game down and play at the grind-it-out pace which favors a player like Randolph, more missed shots, more rebounds, etc. Guess we shall see!

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  6. Dude Aldridge unreal. Congrats to whoever picked him. I obviously wanted to see how the series progressed first, but that number of his is worth it regardless in hindsight. Hopefully he has more of those!

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  7. Yeah... I banked with Aldridge's 66 tonight.. :)
    .....Thunder up !

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    1. its not everyday that someone drops 66 PRA. The last person I remember having a 60+ PRA was when Dwight was still in Orlando hahaha.. CONGRATULATIONS MAN!

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  8. Im going with Marc Gasol tomorrow. He has been a beast on Game 2's and I think Conley will be tasked to also defend Westbrook, limiting his opportunities to score.

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  9. Hi guys, such a crazy nba night! The wizards win was the biggest surprise for me, i didn't expect that..The Mavs were close to do the same, but in the last 5 minutes san antonio started to defend and bye bye dallas. I still think spurs will win 4-0. Yesterday i was talking about my doubt between Big Al and Aldridge, deciding to go with the first...Bad decision ahah but there's no time to regret, i watch the glass half full: portland won, aldridge still available(even if i'm quite sure he won't have another 66 PRA during this playoffs), and Al injured, not too serious but he could have problems to express his full potential. For tonight's games i pick Marc Gasol, saving Zibo for game 3 at home, where he performs better. 99% Gasol, and 1% Blake..after losing game 1 it's a must win for the Clips and Blake had a difficult game 1 with foul trouble, i expect him to have a big game 2, at least 35 PRA, but on the other hand it's just game 2 of a long series and I still see the Clippers winning it (even if i hope they lose as a Lakers fan).

    Matteo

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    1. As a Lakers fan you wanna see Clips win, so it forces Jim Buss to panic, make mistakes, and be forced out himself out of running the Lakers hehe. I hate Jim for hating Phil.

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  10. Part of me wants to pick Blake Griffin tonight. He should have a bounce back game after playing only 19 mins. in game 1. I still think LAC will in the series, but this is more of a hedge play in case the Clips go down 0-2 and then hit the road. I'll probably still go with a Grizzlies player by the time the games tip off, though.

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    1. Griffin will no doubt be big, but a Grizzlies player is still the best bet as the Clippers will likely bounce back and you'll be able to take advantage of Griffin at a later time, which is what you really want.

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  11. After the first two days, things are now officially complicated. After 5 home teams lost, I can honestly say this is a first for me in Drive to the Finals. There is a good chance one or two of those teams fall to 0-2 (based on there being 5 teams in the situation), and a very good chance we are looking at a lot of higher seeded teams down 3-1 after Game 4. This presents a new dilema - do we now pick top players from the teams we used to be confident in or continue to pick players from the teams we think will lose for sure (which is probably Memphis, Dallas and Charlotte for most people). Both strategies have risk! And that's the dilema. Continue to pick slightly lesser players that are safer to be eliminated (like Monta Ellis, Marc Gasol, Kemba Walker or Mike Conley) and risk creating a game 5 and 6 log jam of guys from the series we wait out like POR-HOU, LAC-GS, CHI-WSH and TOR-BKN. Pick a series too soon and risk losing a second round player. I think I'm going to get a mix of these. For example, Houston-Portland is going to be an incredible point scoring series by the looks of it, so I don't mind making a mistake in losing a guy in round 2 compared to not being able to pick either Harden and Howard or Aldridge and Lillard. That's why James Harden is probably going to be my game 2 pick. As for today, it's the safer option (not Blake Griffin or Chris Paul) and instead a Grizzly. I've got Zach Randolph locked in for Game 3, so today it's either Gasol or Conley. I'm going Conley. Gasol is a very stable option, but Conley might have the higher ceiling.

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    1. Also best of luck to everyone on official "Ride a Grizzly" day. Hope it's a safer ride for all of us than it would be with an actual Grizzly Bear!

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    2. Your Blazers / Rockets series analysis and picking one of those players on either team sooner than later is not necessarily a bad idea. I also thought this as I saw Aldridge putting up an insane PRA. However, if I can always find a player on a team that will almost surely be eliminated putting up 30 PRA safely, I still think it's best to save as many guys as possible for Round 2. That when you start to climb the rankings.

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    3. It's Round 1. Logjams rarely happen. Pick safely :)

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    4. Yep, that is usually the way to go. After game 1, I am now a huge fan of the Blazers. I think Aldridge and Lillard have ice in their veins, and that clutch play will help a lot. So I'm confident they will move on. Most years I'd wait it out, but with the amount of teams down I want to find which of those 5 I think will lose. I've decided Houston and Toronto, and possibly the Bulls but I'll wait it out. I'm more confident in the Clippers (because I picked Curry, I'm biased) and the Pacers.

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  12. One thing I've learned in the past is to lay out your player selection for the season.. (I do it on my wall, based on a series ending in 5 games) when I do this you learn that it's not just the regular strategy(picking players from losing teams to save better ones for the x2 and such) but you are also fighting against the schedule... what teams are playing on what day and with what other teams.... when you can see the big picture(with your layout) sometimes you find that you CAN get away with playing this or that player and also you my see that you can get stuck in a trap at the end(if you don't do a layout) with only so many games and few player to play but they end up playing on the same day and you can only use one and get stuck out on the others.....
    ..... Just a thought...
    Thunder up !!!

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    1. Not lay it out for the (season) but for the complete playoffs...

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    2. I do it in Excel. Seeing the landscape from afar does help.

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  13. Isn´t the old saying "It´s not a series until the road team wins"? Then we already have 5 series after two days. Not too shabby. The only teams to hold homecourt are the favorites in the West (Spurs and Thunder) and East (Heat).

    Aldridge and Lillard were the ones to pick, even if the Blazers upset the Rockets. Too bad I chose Ellis for his 14 PRA. But come tuesday it will be an interesting pick, as all three hometeams are down in the series. Might be a good time for a Raptor.

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    1. Interested indeed. My notion, however, is that there's no reason to believe any of these series will go the opposite of your original prediction until the other team takes a 2 game lead or gets a 3rd win on the board. Until that happens, I'm still operating as if the Clippers, Rockets, etc. will win their series, which I believe is the correct way of thinking.

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    2. For me, it's until the road team goes up 2-X.

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  14. Kenny Smith didn't get his second pick in.. SMH
    ...C'mon man!

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    1. They fixed Kenny's. It'll happen from time to time where they don't get in their picks. However, it doesn't seem to be cheating like perhaps they verbally or wrote down advance picks in case they forget. So him getting Dirk yesterday as he did in the correction definitely isn't optimal for him. What sucks the most is they all eventually dip out right before or during The Finals. It always happens like that for some reason; no idea why they give up and don't play all the way.

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    2. ahhh I see they have him down with Dirk...
      ..................... But the points don't show it 'yet'

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    3. They always bow out during the Conf Finals. Maybe that's the extent of their deal with AutoTrader. The Finals ad spot is expensive.

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    4. I think the "experts" stop playing because they aren't allowed to win anything.

      but crazy playoffs so far!! a lot of upsets, which makes this really tricky....

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    5. That can't be the reason because none of them ever come close to winning. Chances are way too slim & they necessarily play well anyway. Taong's theory is interesting. I'll really try to think on it this year and come to a conclusion.

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  15. I'm going with Stephen Curry tonight...
    ..........Let's do this !!
    ...................................Good luck everyone
    Thunder UP !!!

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  16. Damn you Randolph. Learn how to rebound the ball! What a fluke

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  17. What a game. Playoff basketball! I wish I would of taken Conley. Gasol got me 30 PRA which I'm pretty happy about because he can very easily sometimess only get 20. Too bad the series is 1-1. I'm really hoping OKC pulls out game 3 or this could get tricky.

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  18. Randolph laid an egg in the first half and almost sat on it. Miracle he ended with the number he did. 12 in OT

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  19. Anyone got Griffin? 37 rebounds picked him and he is having a revenge game!!! Go for 50 griff!! Aldridge last night....and now griff.....

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    1. the classic blow-out sit the entire 4th quarter effect...

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    2. I picked Griffin. Sad to see him sit the 4th.

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