Perfect Pick: Pre-Finals Edition

In the tradition of the DTTF forums (which by the way is nowhere to be found), here is an initial version of the Perfect Pick. See if it is possible for you to even think about picking a specific player on a given date.

Note that this is not a perfect Perfect Pick. For this version, I did not include any Spur nor Heat (except the last two entries), assuming that the top 6 players of the Finalists will perform better in the Finals. And players are selected on their last series. The list also assumes that the Perfect Picker guessed the winning team every single time. Ownership percentage is based on 1-N-Done statistics.


See how impossible (alright.. improbable) it is for someone to achieve this:

  • At least 8 daily leaders, e.g. Klay Thompson with 49 PRA
  • At least 18 top two players, e.g. Chandler Parsons with 45 PRA
  • At least 12 picks owned by less than 3% of the game, e.g. Matt Barnes at 0% owned
  • At least 52% of players picked playing on the road, ignoring the home court factor
  • At least three 50+ PRAs and eleven 40+ PRAs
  • At least 31 out of 38 picks had 30 PRA or more
  • At least 1300 DTTF points; leading gamer thetruth2103 only has 1220 DTTF points


No, it is not possible. It does not even make sense with any known strategy. No sabermetric or gut feel can achieve this. One thing is for sure, luck is a great factor in these fantasy games.

After the Finals, if I have time to write a Perl script, I'll post the perfect Perfect Pick.

Oh by the way, here are my Game 1 picks: [DTTF] Ray Allen, and [1-N-Done] LeBron James ;)

12 comments:

  1. I've been working on this for a bit. A few modifications to your

    (+12 for Lawson over Howard in exchange for -4 from Lawson to Ilyasova, +5 Chris Paul over Griffin, in exchange for -1 Iguodala for Paul and -1 Bogut for Iguodala, +24 Durant over Martin for -11 Conley over Durant and -3 Danny Green over Conley, and finally +17 Roy Hibbert over Lance Stephenson, -15 Haslem over Hibbert, -3 Stephenson over Hill, +11 Hill over Cole and +17 Wade over Allen)

    I used some Heat and Spurs (Haslem, Green and Wade) which should leave enough for the finals. Wade could easily be switched for Allen like you have. Gives you +48 PRA with Wade, and +31 without Wade.

    1. Andre Miller, 36
    2. Pau Gasol, 38
    3. Chris Paul, 37
    4. Ersan Ilyasova, 28
    5. James Harden, 53
    6. Luol Deng, 34
    7. Ty Lawson, 48
    8. Deron Williams, 45
    9. Paul Pierce, 43
    10. Chandler Parsons, 45
    11. Andre Iguodala, 44
    12. Kevin Garnett, 39
    13. Andrew Bogut, 38
    14. Matt Barnes, 40
    15. Joakim Noah, 40
    16. Kevin Durant, 56
    17. Stephen Curry, 59
    18. Mike Conley, 45
    19. Klay Thompson, 49
    20. Nate Robinson, 30 (Chris Bosh, 43)
    21. Reggie Jackson, 28
    22. Jarret Jack, 35
    23. Serge Ibaka, 32
    24. Harrison Barnes, 33
    25. Carlos Boozer, 41
    26. Raymond Felton, 21
    27. Carmelo Anthony, 48
    28. Danny Green, 23
    29. Zach Randolph, 36
    30. David West, 32
    31. Roy Hibbert, 40
    32. Marc Gasol, 35
    33. Udonis Haslem, 25
    34. Quincey Pondexter, 26 (Tony Parker, 47)
    35. Lance Stephenson, 27
    36. Paul George, 43
    37. George Hill, 24
    38. Dwyane Wade, 31 (LeBron James, 44)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Anonymous!
      Finals will further mix this up.

      Delete
    2. +8 for Jarrett Jack over Ersan Ilyasova and +2 for Harrison Barnes over Jarrett Jack in exchange for -9 for Carl Landry over Harrison Barnes.

      Note that this modification doesn't work for 1-N-Done though.

      1. Andre Miller, 36
      2. Pau Gasol, 38
      3. Chris Paul, 37
      4. Jarrett Jack, 36
      5. James Harden, 53
      6. Luol Deng, 34
      7. Ty Lawson, 48
      8. Deron Williams, 45
      9. Paul Pierce, 43
      10. Chandler Parsons, 45
      11. Andre Iguodala, 44
      12. Kevin Garnett, 39
      13. Andrew Bogut, 38
      14. Matt Barnes, 40
      15. Joakim Noah, 40
      16. Kevin Durant, 56
      17. Stephen Curry, 59
      18. Mike Conley, 45
      19. Klay Thompson, 49
      20. Nate Robinson, 30 (Chris Bosh, 43)
      21. Reggie Jackson, 28
      22. Harrison Barnes, 37
      23. Serge Ibaka, 32
      24. Carl Landry, 24
      25. Carlos Boozer, 41
      26. Raymond Felton, 21
      27. Carmelo Anthony, 48
      28. Danny Green, 23
      29. Zach Randolph, 36
      30. David West, 32
      31. Roy Hibbert, 40
      32. Marc Gasol, 35
      33. Udonis Haslem, 25
      34. Quincy Pondexter, 26
      35. Lance Stephenson, 27
      36. Paul George, 43
      37. George Hill, 24
      38. Dwyane Wade, 31
      Total Points: 1420

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  2. This list might not be as perfect in 1 N Done though.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The perfect picks are by definition unattainable except when you are one of the NBA experts who can pick after the fact and look clever picking a player that had a great game and injured himself out of the playoffs in the end.

    There are always some picks that are impossible to get right. Nobody did pick Matt Barnes. How can you get the perfect game for players like Bogut, Thompson, Kevin Martin and the likes? You might even hit one or two, but not all. Not even most.

    By the way, I really miss the DTTF-Forum. Why do the link to it if it isn´t there anymore?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The general forum of NBA.com was removed sometime last year in favor of social media sites like FB and Twitter (cuts some costs too at maintaining the forums I think). Then when DTTF came back they just recycled the same content, except that the forum link is pointing to null, then changed to link to the NBA blogs of the regular season fantasy games.

      Delete
  4. Why is Bosh shooting threes? 0/4. They aren't winning anything with that

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    Replies
    1. Exactly my thought, Luminosity. That's what the Spurs want Bosh to do. I cringed as Bosh let go of that 23-footer... in crunch time.

      Those who picked the Spurs to win are looking handsome and/or pretty right now.

      Pick if the day: Kawhi Leonard.

      Delete
  5. My predictions continue to be pretty strong. LeBron had a great game 1 (18 rebounds is just crazy) putting up the best numbers you'll likely see all series...AND San Antonio is as good as expected.

    I actually thought the rust would lead to a blowout this game. The Heat are really in for a tough series as SA will only get better as they do each series, and Wade is likely to get worse as the series wears on and his nagging injuries creep back.

    Had Wade tonight and he was solid enough for a top 4 pick and I only dropped down to 99.4% so the LeBron hit wasn't that bad. I might still have a shot if I can pick the best games for Duncan and Parker.

    Go Spurs!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wade could have been better, but his PRA in Game 1 was average. I thought he'll have 30 PRA.. maybe in Game 2 (he has same amount of rest as Game 1's, 2 days rest).

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