LeBron: Do or Die

Ah this is what I was afraid of. Game 7. No more Pacers left. Should we pick LeBron James? Or risk losing his PRA. LeBron is the hottest pick in Game 7. Let me try something...

Instead of laying out reasons why a player should be picked, I will do the opposite. Why one should not pick LeBron in Game 7 (not exactly my thoughts)...

  • Does not have LeBron James (doh!)
  • Pretty sure Heat will win
  • Die-hard Heat fan
  • Die-hard LeBron fan
  • Die-hard Pacer hater (Spike Lee?)
  • Still have Paul George (or Hibbert or West)
  • Thinks LeBron will play better in Finals
  • Does not want to lose the extra 40 PRA in 1-N-Done's Finals 4X
  • Thinks LeBron will yield to Wade and Bosh just to prevent being dubbed one-man team
  • Wants to deviate from the hottest pick to gain possible traction
  • Does not care about missing LeBron's PRA
  • Grandma said so

See which among these apply to you, and think about whether those factors are enough to sway you from picking LeBron.

If not, pick LeBron James. Now!

In DTTF, picking him in Game 7 has no glaring difference from picking him in the Finals. Except maybe on the very very slight chance that the Pacers advance. He gets my pick in DTTF.

However, in 1-N-Done, I am desperate to make a bold move to go up in the ranks in my joined leagues there. I feel that the difference of 3X now to 4X later is very important to my game there. Assuming he gets 40 PRA in a game, 160 is far better than 120. Of course it is a risk I am willing to take because I think Heat will win Game 7. If Pacers win, I'm toast. Udonis Haslem gets my pick in 1-N-Done.

Crossing my fingers.

21 comments:

  1. dwayne wade is the option that is making me feel the least guilty about everything. Yes i'm throwing away one of the big 3 BUT its not lebron AND its not an ailing bosh. Even though it puts me almost in a lose lose I feel better about it. Why is that?

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    1. Because you think Heat will win...

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  2. You're right, Taong. To lose the Lebron's PRA contribution would be a sin...

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  3. I'm gonna play Bron in D2TF - like you said it doesn't really matter if you pick him now or in the finals (if they advance).

    But right now I'm leaning towards gambling in 1-n-Done and picking D-Wade. I think someone has to step up besides LeBron in order for the Heat to win this Game 7. And I think it will much rather be Wade than Bosh.
    If it wasn't for that damn multiplier this would be an absolute no-brainer. Oh and I'm also surprised that only 28.3 % are going with James in 1-n-Done until now (compared to 41 % in D2TF) - that's actually not a lot of people.
    And last but not definitely not least - he's gonna play out of his mind and go all out in order to keep the dream of the repeat alive.

    So many thoughts.... I'll let my gut decide come tomorrow ;)

    In D2TF I'm at 98 %, Rank 487.
    In 1-n-Done at 99.7 %, Rank 240.

    Great Playoffs for me so far, but this game tomorrow is gonna set the tone for the rest of them - not only for me but for lots of people.

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    1. That extra multiplier is the reason why 1-N-Doners are reluctant.

      Nice percentiles btw!

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  4. Here's where I get to say I told you so, Taong :)

    I called this one for the Pacers from the start and saw it going at least 6 and likely 7 for that to happen. There is a twinge of doubt because clearly when LeBron went off in game 5 Indy crumbled under the pressure and their inexperience in how to respond to Miami turning up the intensity, cost them the game.

    Still not sure why everyone is so confident in Miami (this being the most beatable they've ever looked since the big 3 came together). What has me sticking with my prediction is everytime Indy looks like they'll cave to LeBron's will...they respond with a big win. Nobody has won two straight games yet in this series, but now that Indy knows what it feels like to be on the wrong end of a Miami hurricane...I thought they handled the push Miami made really great in game 6 and expect them to do the same in game 7.

    Without Wade and Bosh playing their best I just don't see Miami winning, even if LeBron goes 45 - 12 - 12 for the night. The Heat are outmatched, and Indy finally knows this and we saw West, Stephensen, Hill and most importantly George all step into the level of play they need to be at to win this series.

    I chose George in my last game which I hated doing but this game is really about odds and I lost CP3 and Griffin in that first round with so many games going on and me refusing to believe Mephis was going to win so convincingly. Maybe I should have stuck with my gut as I now have only Hill for the finals should Indy prove me right.

    I'm picking LeBron for game 7...but if Miami wins it's pretty much done for me since I'll only have Wade and the scoobie gang left and be hoping for a SA sweep since I still have Parker, Duncan and Ginobli.

    And wow, rhymen_simen...you're really killing it. Congrats!

    I'm only playing 1-n-Done. Thanks to George last night I'm at 99.0% Rank 912

    Tomorrow will definitely set the tone - playing LeBron tomorrow or night will likely decide the winner and be the major factor in the final standings.

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    1. Hehe you have won the right to say you told me so, and moreso if Pacers win. But if I do get a do-over, I'd do the same thing.

      I also had prediction of 7 games, but for Heat. Wade and Bosh are hurt. Wade is asking for more touches and LeBron is bound to oblige. Bosh just wants to push himself. If this is just a regular playoff game, the present situation of injury and identity crisis will not spell a victory. However, this is a Game 7 at home. Miami will go nuts.

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    2. The home court advantage is definitely a big plus. But Miami has the worst fans (maybe second only to the Lakers - where even Nicholson will walk out of losing games). They never show up until the end of the second quarter and they go silent unless their team is pummeling their opponent.

      I think the biggest advantage for Miami is actually game 7 experience. Indy might unfortunately find the nerves are too much and wind up blowing a lot of shots (like game 6) or taking bad ones (like game 5).

      We'll know soon enough.

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  5. And to think I don´t play 1-n-done where it is really helpful to save LeBron...

    I only play DTTF and this year I suck beyond belief. Not even close to 80%. Last year I finished in the top 300, this year not so much. So it doesn´t either help or hurt me saving/missing out on LBJ.

    I just try to go for the super-idiot-move: James with a monster of a game, the Pacers winning and me picking Mario Chalmers and leaving LeBron on the table. Why not? I missed out on Kobe, Rose and Duncan already. Oh wait, I can pick Duncan in the next series. As well as LeBron if everything goes according to Stern and his mighty band of referees.

    Are there any lines in Vegas on the expected free-throws in game 7? Something like 50-15 in favor of the Heat?

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    1. What if... NBA really wants the Pacers to win?

      It will help level the playing field for all teams, thinking that a big 3 doesn't always guarantee a ring. Small markets will love a Pacer-Spur Finals.

      It will also help break the Big3. If Heat lose, expect Bosh traded. Then if they lose again, expect LBJ to bolt in free agency in 2015 to get his money.

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    2. That is a funny theory you have, but David Stern does not care what the small markets love. How else do you explain all these dynasties in the league over the years?

      Somehow I don´t see the Pacers winning in Miami in game 7. As somebody said, they have to be 20 points better than Miami to win, and they just aren´t.

      By the way: I expect James to bolt anyway in 2015. He got his ring, the monkey is off his back. He can now go to a team that can be HIS. In Miami, he can do whatever he wants to, it´s still Wade´s team. He even might be an idol again if he tries to win a title in Cleveland after all. The supporting cast couldn´t be worse than what he´s got right now.

      Is that the same team that won 118 games in February and March?

      Right now, I´m just glad that nobody mentioned so far that the series would be over if not for James gamewinner in the opener. Therseries would have developed in a complete different way.

      Too bad I can´t see these games. Well, I am looking forward to crawling through the play-by-play at what will be tuesday evening here in Germany, about 16 hrs after the game.

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    3. Spurs had a little dynasty going on, and they are small market. Knicks are a big market, but where is the dynasty. The NBA (not necessarily Stern) wants small markets to have a taste of success or profit. They don't have to do anything for big markets, coz they are already profitable.

      Under the table arrangements may be there, but they need to display an environment of fairness so that those kinks don't show.

      As for LeBron, he also has an opt out for 2014. I think he will go for another title contender. Forget Cleveland, that will never happen.

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    4. I did forget to factor in the whistles...ahhhh.

      Pacers have an uphill battle for sure. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but this season my mind is actually open to that possibility. Last year when D-Wade got away with a clear foul on Rondo in OT that cost Boston the game and series (me being a Celtics fan), I had to put my emotions in check about it since I was clearly going to be biased.

      This year though the Lakers just barely made the post season with the help of some ridiculous calls in close games. Maybe that was a coincidence. But Miami looked terrible against Chicago and was physical and even dirty (IMO they are the dirtiest team in the league - yeah I'm talking about you Battier and D Wade) but Chicago got killed with whistles and technicals and even had a player tossed for a simple shove. I grew up watching Bball in the 80s, that was hardly a foul then and Miller gave that same shove to Hibbert last game and knocked him over and the refs didn't even blow a whistle.

      This series it's been even more obvious that the whistles are just terribly biased to the point of ridiculous (that double T on Hansboro) and always seem to happen in bunches whenever Indiana is gaining momentum. And Shane Battier (Mr. Moving screen and King of the hold and flop) gets away with everything. Or West getting called for a flop to cancel out and take the focus off of "King" James doing a cartwheel over him.

      Sadder than the whistles though is actually seeing how desperate LeBron has become for another ring that flopping is now a regular part of his game. It's embarrassing.

      I really, really hope that whistles are not a factor. If they are Pacers don't have a shot.

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    5. RE: Alex Herges

      Why can't you see the games? You have internet, yes?

      You can stream the games live online. I'd post the site I use but not sure it's the appropriate space for that.

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    6. Another theory I hear from out there is that the NBA is just prolonging the series. With more games come more money from TV. Maybe they are anticipating a boring Finals, so that they are milking this series.

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    7. I hear that one two. But if that was the case wouldn't they have helped Memphis extend that series...? And why not make the Bulls or even the Bucks series go a few extra games so more people watch the Heat?

      While I don't doubt there is incentive to do that, and there is definitely a clear bias around the star teams and star players for whistles (Jordan got the best whistles ever) who knows if there is any truth to it.

      A lot of it is human error, and I honestly think their should be a fourth official (watching from the sideline at midcourt from behind a monitor) who is responsible for replay calls and making plays such as goaltending, shot clock violations and the plays that are actually easier to see from a distance and hard to catch when you're watching for ten other things.

      I often wonder if in the not too distant there will only be only one or two refs who deal only with player interactions and techs while the court will have sensors and the ball and players sneakers will have gps and tracking points with an AI overseeing all the rulebook calls to guarantee the right call is made since the computer can calculate and sense exactly where the ball was at any point, and where players were. The days of blown block/charges would be over as the software would calculate within hundreths of seconds who had the spot first and if their feet were planted.

      Can you tell I'm a screenwriter with the day off :o

      Hope the game is a great one tonight.

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    8. @Seda: I have about three problems with watching the NBA.
      My internet connection is getting worse by the day. Sometimes it takes me up to 10 minutes to get a comment in this here blog. That´s because...
      I have a surfstick with a limit. In any given window of 30 days I have "budget" of 5 GB of traffic. I once watched a basketball here in Germany in a not-so-great quality, it cost me about 700 MB download, that´s what I have for 4-5 days.
      And then there is the time problem, but that´s really a minor factor only.

      I hope I have a better internet connection next season, but right now, no option.

      @Taong: I kind of might buy into that whole "small markets must have at least a taste of success so they keep trying", but that´s why the Spurs are in the Finals. One small market team is enough, really. I remember back in 1994 when there was a real danger of a Finals between the Utah Jazz and the Indiana Pacers. Luckily for Stern it was the Rockets against the Knicks, or Olajuwon versus Ewing. Crisis averted.

      The Spurs are just too good to keep out indefinitely (I still don´t know how they lost last season after a 10-0 start in the playoffs), but no way in heck will these two small market teams be allowed to slug it out on the biggest stage.

      I would really like to be surprised. All we want is regular officiating without a big bonus in either way. Don´t think it will happen, though. I foresee lots of FTs for Miami and lots of foul trouble for Hibbert and West.

      P.S.: I am still picking Chalmers.
      P.P.S.: Yes, I know how incredibly stupid that is. I don´t care. Go Pacers!

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    9. I think the extension is due to idle time between WCF and Finals coz Spurs swept early.

      The last CBA proceeding was all about leveling the playing field. I truly hope dynasties and big spending be eliminated. There are too much fans out there who haven't even gotten to the WCF. They cannot forever rely on LeBron and Kobe carrying the international market while alienating the losing USA markets. The memories of Celtics and Lakers are good for history, but this is dawning of diversity. I want to see 8 different champs for the next 10 years.

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  6. So yes, Taong....you get to say you told me so.

    Miami has this game for sure. No way a team this inexperienced can be expected to play down this big in a game 7 on the road against Miami.

    Vogel let this game get out of hand by leaving the bench in too long. As soon as that lead got up to 4 he needed to put Hibbert and George back in. Indy can't win when they play from behind...they just don't have the confidence in themselves to score.

    It's win or go home Hibbet and George should play every minute.

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    1. You are right, they need a floor of 4 starters everytime. In a sexond galf that they need to rally, a non-scoring bench won't help.

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