Finals: Spurs Versus Heat

Welcome to the 2013 NBA Finals! This is the culmination of all the things you did in the previous rounds. Whether you picked the right or wrong teams to win, or used players too early or saved them for the Finals, this is when you taste the fruits of your strategies, or suffer the consequences of your mistakes.

Gone are the worrying of which team will advance and which players to save. The only thing you need to worry now is to pick the right players at the right time, especially the fillers (anyone outside either team's Big Three). Here are my thoughts on when each player "may" do better...

  • LeBron James. Loves Game Ones and elimination games (theirs or otherwise).
  • Dwyane Wade. Injury-ridden, so he may be best on games after a long rest: Games 1, 2 and 5.
  • Chris Bosh. Performs best when in Texas near his family: Games 3, 4 and 5.
  • Mario Chalmers. Needs to heat up, and best picked near the end of the Finals.
  • Ray Allen. Should play better against the Spurs than against the Pacers. Pick anytime.
  • Udonis Haslem. No pattern can be discerned. Will dictate downfall or rise of your rank.
  • Tim Duncan. The Big Fundamental is an easy pick anytime in the Finals. Any game.
  • Tony Parker. Will have big production in any game, until Heat decides to put LeBron on him.
  • Manu Ginobili. He said that the long rest heading to the Finals has greatly benefited him. May be better picked in first two games.
  • Kahwi Leonard. May need Game 1 to get rid of the jitters. Better in succeeding games.
  • Danny Green. Stats fluctuate. Treat him like a Udonis Haslem.
  • Tiago Splitter. Unreliable pick, and you need to be feeling very very lucky before you pick him.

Or have a 4-sided dice ready, assign your best 4 players available, and roll away!

If you have tidbits on when these players should be picked, feel free to share in the comments section. Cheers!

9 comments:

  1. Well, it´s the Heat and the Spurs in the Finals. Who´d have imagined that?

    Everybody, right after Patrick Beverly knocked Russell Westbrook out of the Playoffs. Everybody expected it, and it happened. No surprise here.

    The good news, i still have LeBron. I will pick him in game 1 in the hope he at least does what he always does in first games of a series, especially at home, in the Finals, against the one team he still has a score to settle from 2007.

    The bad news, I got an abysmal Chalmers. Somehow, whenever I try and pick a reliable player that had a bad game and is predisposed to do better in the following outing, he responds with a second bad game in a fow (I call that phenomenon "the Z-Bo"). Well, Haslem would have been even worse.

    So I lost 34 PRA with my pick. I somehow doubt that I can make that up in game 1, unless James unleashes the monster of monsters by giving us that 45-12-15 I am waiting for, all the while no one else even cracks 20. Not likely, I know.

    In the meantime, my first plan, which is up to change, sees Tim Duncan for game 2 (the crafty veteran who knows how important the split will be after the loss thanks to Monster-LeBron in game 1), then Parker for game 3 (the crafty veteran who knows how important game 3 is in a tied series), then Bosh for game 4 (the crafty veteran who always plays solid to good in Texas), then Leonard in game 5 (who should have adjusted to the stage by then and who I want to pick at home). After that game, the Spurs will have won, and if you believe all of that...

    ...then I might have a nice bridge I might be able to sell you.

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    1. I like your plan, except the Spurs lose Game 2 and 4, methinks ;)

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  2. I have.

    Green.
    Parker
    Duncan
    Wade
    Bosh
    Allen

    I'm going to pick Green after a bad game. All Spurs are coming off too much rest. Which makes me not want to pick them for game 1. Game 1I'm going with wade coming off his best game and the fact that Spurs will be looking to stop James game 1 and after wade explodes game 1 they will adjust. So lets go FLASH!!

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    1. Wade in Game 1, rested, not bad. Hottest pick in both fantasy games. 20%

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  3. Good news is entering round 3 I'm up to 99.6% and ranked 334 overall.

    Bad news is I might have peaked early, thanks to picking LeBron in game 7 of the ECF.

    Inexperience, lack of a bench, and a coach who doesn't (yet) understand how to navigate a finals game cost me my upset. Damn you Indy.

    I'm still in pretty good shape as I have everyone but (LeBron, Bosh and Danny Green)

    I'm currently thinking:

    G1: Wade
    G2: Duncan
    G3: Parker
    G4: Ginobli
    G5: Chalmers
    G6: Leonard
    G7: Allen

    Anyone else notice that Miami's gunslingers all seem to break out in the final closeout game of a series. Allen was a no show then blows up in game 7. Last year Miller steps in after doing next to nothing and hits 8 threes in the final game.

    I'm betting either Allen or Miller does that again in this series.

    I'm going San Antonio wins this series in 6

    They'll likely get blown out in game 1, but they have a very clear map from Indy on how to beat Miami and the depth and talent to do what Indy couldn't...which is keep talented players on the floor and score consitently enough to put pressure on Miami's defense.

    Best of all they have what Indy didn't...an elite point guard who can disect the defense and the best coach in the game who will counter any in-game adjustments that Spoelstra makes and be able to keep feeding the ball to Duncan and Splitter regardless of the defensive schemes.

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    1. Pacers got something that Spurs don't.
      Hibbert.

      Duncan yes, but LeBron will draw him out. LeBron plays PF.

      I think this will be an entirely new challenge. Which makes it fresh TV.

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    2. Hibbert was huge and made a world of difference.

      Duncan won't cover LeBron. Pop is too smart for that. Expect Duncan to possibly move to the 5 or for them to switch on D to exploit their size.

      And actually I would say the spurs have 3 things which the Pacers didn't that will make all the difference:

      Popovich (the best coach in basketball - period)

      Tony Parker (the Heat struggle against 2 things - big rebounders and quick PGs - Tony is quick and IMO best PG in the game)

      Tim Duncan (Hibbert is a much better defender but still doesn't know how to control the paint on the offensive end. He is way too passive when he fights for position and allows smaller players to get him off his spot - Tim Duncan can score anywhere and is the smartest big in the game. Immune to double teams and great at getting where he wants to be on the floor.

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    3. PS. LeBron played the entire Pacer series (save for maybe a few minutes) from the SF position with Bosh at the 4 and UD at the 5.

      They'll likely use a similar lineup against SA.

      Duncan and/or Splitter would destroy LeBron if they try and use him to guard either of them.

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    4. I agree on what you said about Pop. Spo may crumble and will have to rely sheer players' talents to win.

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