Fantasy Landscape

Do you wonder how many people already picked LeBron James? The Big Three? The "Other" Big Three? The fillers? If you are looking to overtake people or go up in the ranks of your league, you can use this as a guide. Here they are...

(Note: All percentages are based on 1-N-Done statistics, unless stated as DTTF. Figures in both fantasy games are almost the same, except on the final few games of the Heat-Pacers series.)

MIAMI HEAT:

  • LeBron James
    • 52.4% picked before Finals, 47.6% remains
    • 9.2% picked him in his 1st three games in the first round; that is typical of these fantasy games as newbies (like I was about 4 years ago) do not realise early how important it is to save players in better teams for later rounds
    • 28.7% picked him in Game 7 versus the Pacers -- panic button ;)
  • Dwyane Wade
    • 37.1% picked before Finals, 62.9% remains
    • 10.8% picked him in Game 7
    • Hottest pick at about 20% in both DTTF and 1-N-Done for Game 1 of the Finals
  • Chris Bosh
    • 50.5% picked before Finals, 49.5% remains
    • 11.8% picked him after Pacers won Game 2 in Miami. The excellent play of the Pacers have certainly left some people to believe that the Heat were in trouble (which is justified)
    • Hottest pick at at least 18% in DTTF for Game 2 of the Finals
  • Mario Chalmers
    • 72.5% picked before Finals, 27.5% remains -- if you still have him, he is your X-Factor
    • 30.6% picked him in Game 5 against the Pacers. The scarcity of available Pacers at the time led many to pick a not-so-big-three from the Heat
  • Ray Allen
    • 54.0% picked before Finals, 46.0% remains
    • 33.7% picked in the Pacers series Games 5, 6 and 7 despite of repeated suggestions that he plays better versus the Spurs than the Pacers; PRAs of 11, 9 and 14, respectively
  • Udonis Haslem
    • 42.8% picked before Finals, 57.2% remains
    • Peaked pick at 23.7% in Game 6 with 2 PRA (2!) in 16 minutes
  • Rest of the Heat
    • Everyone else still available on more than 70% of the fantasy gamers
    • Chris "The Birdman" Andersen tops at 28.1% picked

SAN ANTONIO SPURS:

  • Tim Duncan
    • 40.8% picked before Finals, 59.2% remains
    • 10.8% picked him after the Warriors won Game 4 and tied the series. The power of Stephen Curry.
  • Tony Parker
    • 41.7% picked before Finals, 58.3% remains
    • 8.0% picked in Game 1 against the Warriors; probably many believed after the Warriors disposed of the Nuggets
  • Manu Ginobili
    • 47.2% picked before Finals, 52.8% remains
    • 13.4% picked in Game 1 against the Grizzlies, who earlier beat the Thunder after Westbrook got injured. We got a few Spur-doubters.
  • Kawhi Leonard
    • 64.3% picked before Finals, 35.7% remains -- another X-Factor
    • 24.4% picked in Game 1 against the Grizzlies. Nope, we got more Spur-doubters.
  • Danny Green
    • 39.8% picked before Finals, 60.2% remains
    • 26.6% picked in first two games against the Grizzlies. And more of them Spur-doubters!
  • Rest of the Spurs
    • Everyone else still available on more than 90% of the fantasy gamers
    • Tiago "Skip Bayless' Boy" Splitter tops at 5.8% picked

Looking at the hottest picks for the next 7 games of the Finals, the pick plan of some resembles this:
  1. Dwyane Wade
  2. Chris Bosh
  3. Tony Parker
  4. Danny Green or Manu Ginobili
  5. Danny Green or Tiago Splitter
  6. Norris Cole or Chris Andersen
  7. Norris Cole or Udonis Haslem

Notice the absence of two main guys. It seems like people are holding LeBron James or Tim Duncan for a do-or-die game, which we can all understand why. Notice also how the homecourt factor is used in these picks.

So will you...
  • Follow the hot picks to preserve your lead?
  • Follow the hot picks and differentiate in the last few games to "prowl then pounce"?
  • Differentiate from the hot picks to leap over people?

Good luck!

10 comments:

  1. My pick plan for first 5 games, beyond that, no clue?? Game 1:Wade Game 2:Duncan Game 3:Parker Game 4:Bosh Game 5:Green I've used LeBron, Allen, & Chalmers. Leonard & Ginobili. Wish I would've held onto LeBron & Allen, but live & learn... MyBrett70247 from 1-&-Done

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    1. Brett, the early Allen pick is okay. The early LeBron is up for debate. But who knows, it all comes down to luck.

      Wish for a sweep (LBJ may want revenge over Spurs sweeping his Cavs before), so that you'll have four good picks in the Finals.

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    2. Totally agree!! I just think where the Spurs have been off for so long they will be somewhat rusty, LeBron (will of course score when he wants) will be looking to get his teammates for more shots for confidence, since they were so inconsistent against the Pacers & if my theory is right, hope they make those shots!! Let LeBron know he has back up, that's why I chose him last round. This is my first fantasy game, I believe I'm doing pretty decent, but must admit, wish I would've saved LeBron!!
      Brett

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    3. Being able to save 4 good players for the Finals is impressive for a freshman. During my first year, I was picking bench players by Finals Game 2.

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    4. Well, my theory was right, for the most part, lol, didn't think he would get 18 Reb though!! 52 more points for those who chose him this game, versus, those who chose him last game, but I only dropped 1.5%, 96.3% to 94.8%. Used Wade game 1. Did anybody else see Wade look @ LeBron like he was crazy when he threw the ball to Allen instead of him, to bring it up the court? Spurs in 6, wishing 5!! Brett

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    5. Nope didn't see that. I guess not everything with LBJ got 50 times better.

      You are not alone in picking Wade. He was the hottest pick jn 1-N-Done (approx. 21,831) and in DTTF (approx 5,020).

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  2. my picks for the finals.
    1. James
    2. Parker or Ginobili
    3. parker or Ginobili whichever is left from game 2.
    4. Bosh
    5. Leonard
    6. Ray Allen
    if goes game 7, will probably pick Danny Green.

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    Replies
    1. Looks like a good plan. I suggest Ginobili in G2

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  3. Spurs in 6. I mean I experienced first hand my lakers get destroyed. Spurs are weakest against the warriors which have guards that can shoot. Only way Heat win is if The Big three play like the big three. No way LeBron can do it by himself.

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    1. You are right, 50-times-better LeBron can't do it himself. He'll try to attack the Spurs D early in the Finals (and win), but will not be able to sustain that through the whole series. That is why Wade, Bosh and Allen need to have big game/s.

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