Quick! Where Is The Dice?

Four teams. All down 2-3. I wish this is as simple as picking CP3 or rolling a dice. But it is not. It is a bit more complicated than that. You see, there are a handful of players you have to pick from... in just two dates!

The Hawks, Celtics, Rockets and Clippers are on the verge of elimination in Friday's Game 6. And their series are the same ones together on Sunday (if necessary). Here are the prospects, in no particular order:

* Chris Paul on the road. He hurt his finger in Game 6 but he insists that he is okay. With Blake Griffin nursing an ankle injury, CP3 will be looked upon to carry the team... more.

* Josh Smith at home. To reiterate, this will be an audition game directed to any NBA team outside Atlanta who is willing to dole out a max deal. Expect Smoove's best performance.

* Al Horford at home. The home team have won convincingly. He had a PRA of 43 in Game 3 at Atlanta, but his median is about 25 PRA. A bit less attractive than others on this date.

* Paul Pierce at home. PRAs are all over the place, too much variance. He has a team option for next season with a buyout option. He is basically auditioning for 1 more run for a ring.

* Kevin Garnett at home. Look at his PRAs: 21-24-31-36-39. Tell me that's not a beautiful trend. If he follows that trend he will more likely be in the range of 38 to 41 PRA.

* Jeff Green at home. His name keeps on appearing in the ESPN forums pitted against star players. It's hard to surmise what he will bring, but I will not be surprised if he reaches 30 PRA.

* James Harden at home. His flu did not seem to bother him in Game 5. You can expect PRA of high 30s to high 40s. That Westbrook injury indeed gave life to that series.

* Chandler Parsons at home. He was trending upwards, peaked at 45 PRA, and then came crashing down to 19 PRA. He should be able to climb back to 20s if luck does not betray him.

With so many matches, we will mostly still be able to pick in a Game 7 regardless who we pick in Game 6 and what team. Let's say that for Games 6 and 7 we can get 30+30 in average, I'd say that's not bad at all in Round 1. For who to pick, that depends on your previous picks, and your remaining stack.

For myself,
Picked Z-Bo, Marc. None from Clippers.
Picked Horford. Josh remains.
Picked Garnett. Pierce, Green remains.
Picked Harden. Parsons remains.

I am betting that all these teams in peril will lose their series eventually. Except in the case of Clippers winning Game 6 (which in itself is unlikely) and playing in LA in Game 7! Game Sevens heavily favor the home team.

About half of you are picking Chris Paul and I already pre-picked him for this date. However, I am changing it to Paul Pierce. I am sure to have something left for Game 7. And if someone else outscores Pierce (say by 10 PRA), I should be able to offset the difference later in the 2nd round.

I am sure, each one of you have a different situation. Just state them in the comments section; I and the others will try to help.

Good luck!

18 comments:

  1. Haha, I know that situation. To copy and correct:

    For myself,
    Picked Z-Bo, Marc. None from Clippers.
    Picked Horford, Teague. Josh remains.
    Picked Garnett, Pierce. Everybody else remains.
    Picked Harden. Everybody else remains.

    How come we both picked mostly the same players yet you are about 100 points above me? Sigh.

    And while I would love to pick Smith at home I have to pick Paul, just like everybody else.

    By the way, I love the Celtics. Pierce and Garnett are about the only players that didn´t totally disappoint me.

    So, the big question is not, who might reach game 7 (best chances for all teams playing at home, meaning every team except the Clippers, which is another reason to pick Paul), but who might be able to be the one team that turns a 0-3 in a series win?

    Big chances for the Celtics and the Rockets, as I picked their studs and none of their opponents. And yes, I do believe that I have the power to write history just by picking the wrong players. Eemeber that guy Harden? He had 28, 53, 44, 19, 42. Guess which game I got?
    Or how about Randolph? 18, 21, 40, 35, 37. I had him before he started to show up.
    Or Marc Gasol? 25, 26, 26, 41, 33. Started to light up after I had picked him.
    Or Pau Gasol? 38, 26, 34, 29. Mine was the 26.
    Or Curry? Had him on day 1 for 32, then he went and had 48, 46, 41.
    Or Horford? 23, 28, 43, 27, 25. I had him for 23.
    Or Monta Ellis? Started with 29, finished with 34, I got 16 out of him.

    I kind of see why I am so much behind everybody else...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your situation is a lot different than mine. You have to pick CP3 to play it safe. Only if you are feeling lucky should you pick Josh Smith.

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    2. I did the same with both Gasols. Thankfully I had Curry on his biggest game...but it's looking like that was actually a bad thing if GS advances.

      Don't feel too bad I had Monta when he put up 13. And Harden for 19. Brutal.

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    3. I had 18 on the very 1st day. You can imagine this blogger was very upset about the kick on his reputation hehe. It happens.

      Hang on guys!

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  2. My situation is:
    Picked Conley, Marc. Randolph remains. None from Clippers.
    I still can pick both Horford and Smith.
    Picked Pierce. KG, Green remains.
    Picked Harden. Parsons remains.

    I can pass on Parsons, Green and maybe KG too. But i have 2 match to try top pick an Hawks and CP3; I think that i'm goin to pick CP3 (no way I can risk to not pick him), and remain with a Hawks for game 7. If Atlanta lose, I'll go with KG or Parson (depends who reach game 7).
    In case CP3 reach game 7, i hope that playing at home can carry Clips to a win, and I'll pick ZBo.

    Any suggestion, or this sounds "good" for my situation?

    (sry again for english, italian reader here)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yours MadHatter is a little closer to my situation. Pick either Garnett or Smith. And hope you get a PRA within 10 clicks of CP3 or closer.

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  3. Hey Taong, I have read your blog through the duration of the playoffs this year. I have never commented and this is my first year playing this game. Hopefully you can provide some insight to my own dilemma.

    MEM-LAC
    I picked Gasol for the Griz but no Clippers.

    BOS-NYK
    I picked Pierce for the C's but no Knicks

    OKC-HOU
    I picked Harden still have Parsons and all Thunder players.

    IND-ATL
    I only picked Teague, still have everyone to choose from.

    I am an inexpierienced player so I'm not sure what to do. Any advice would be appreciated. Thanks a bunch!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous, it seems you have not fully invested against the Grizzlies (unlike me), and so you are in better situation to go with CP3. Worst case scenario for you in the 2nd round is you only picked one player from the team(s) that won round 1. Pick CP3. If they go game 7, just pick from the other game 7s on that date.

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    2. Thanks for your help. I already was going to take CP3, I think. This just further solidifies it. THanks again!

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    3. No probs! Good luck with CP3.

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  4. Picked Marc, Z bo remains. None from Clippers.
    I haven't picked anyone from Hawks nor Pacers.
    Picked Garnett, Pierce. Green remains. None from Knicks.
    Picked Harden. Parsons remains. None from Thunders.

    I am at 90 percentile right now. My original pick was CP3 because I believe they will lose this series. But I'd like to hear your advice. Thanks a lot!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So you have all Clippers and Hawks available.
      A little bit like Anonymous. I'd say pick CP3 for same reason as his.
      But also I will not hold it against you if you pick a Hawk (Josh) and wish he gets PRA near CP3.

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    2. I picked CP3. thanks!

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    3. Wow everyone got eliminated today! At least all that is done with.

      I'm happy for everyone who got CP3!

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  5. I was great through my first 4 picks (99%) then have seriously been cursed. Every guy I've picked since has had their worst game of the post season on the day I picked them. For example I had Harden on his 19 pt game. I took Parsens yesterday based on his consistent improvement and steady play only to have him drop an egg and today picked Lopez (currently at 21 - his lowest game so far). To add to this I went with Smith the game Horford put up a career best and unfortunately guess right that Monta Ellis would have a huge game against Miami, but picked the game he only had 13.

    The plus is in the close series I still have:

    MEM-LA
    Only used Marc Gasol

    BOS-NY
    Still have Garnett and all of NY

    OKC-HOU
    Used Harden and Parsons.

    IND-ATL
    Used Smith.

    BROOKLYN-CHI
    Used Boozer and Lopez.

    I'm a Celtics fan so I'm taking CP3 tomorrow just in case so I don't pass the curse on to Garnett.

    With 363 total points through tonight I have A LOT of ground to make up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yep in your case. Little doubt there will be in picking CP3. Just wish very hard that Clips lose asap.

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  6. Replies
    1. I read a 5-in-5 saying among these teams, Celtics most probable to go to Game 7. I hope you have another Celtics to pick on Game 7

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