Prowl Then Pounce

Wow what a game that was! Pacers toe-to-toe with the Heat. Paul George coming up big in clutch in regulation and overtime, until LeBron James whipped...

That was really a close game that the Pacers could easily have won. If I could give both teams 1 win (1-1 after Game 1), I'll do it! Imagine if the Pacers win Game 2 convincingly, would you consider that a sign of Pacer superiority? Maybe not, but maybe people will start picking Heat players in DTTF.

So nothing has changed to convince me to stop picking Pacers. For 1-N-Done reasons (which I just decided to apply to DTTF as well for uniformity's sake), I'm reserving my top 2 remaining Pacers for later. My pick goes to Lance Stephenson.

If you are not in the top 20% of your league right now, it might be necessary to differentiate from the rest of the pack by not following the hot picks. I do not mean start playing like the underdog will will. I mean just rearrange the timing of picke per series. Just do your reordering of picks with reason, so that you can still have confidence in them. Do not blindly pick someone at random. Hopefully, that going against the flow will allow you to pass some people in your league.

If you have someone in mind you want to overtake (e.g. super-lucky-hustler), look at his pick history and try to surmise who he has left, and who he will most likely pick based on his picking behavior. You may be tempted to right away pick a much much better baller (say, Paul George) just so you can have the distinction of having been able to overtake him. But I'll advise against that. What you should do is ride his coat tail and mirror his picks. And then on an opportune moment (preferably in the Finals), differentiate and hope to overtake.

8 comments:

  1. I miscaculated and am actually running low on starting Pacers. I have Hibbert and Stephenson left and have used West, Hill and George. Even if the Heat sweep I'm going to have to either pick one heat or a Pacer off the bench. Should I stay ahead of the curve and do that now? Heck Hansbrough netter 48 points in game one. Not bad for a back up right? Tread a little water and hold the better players for mor important/home games. Or I could try to use a bench heat, someone like Birdman, he put up 63 in game one. Granted Home/Away might not matter much to starters but I think it is a bigger deal for backups. I'm considering going with him now rather than feeling desperate later.

    As for trying to copy or predict other people's picks it can be hard to do unless they write a blog every day since it wount tell you who they used until the player is locked in at game start. I tend to go against the grain, and have done decent with my ideas and stratigies. I've hit got some things right and others really really, (did I say really?) wrong lol. I never would have imagined sitting here today and hoping I would have used Westbrook in the first round and Durant in the second. My advice, go with your gut. If you don't know a lot you can easily see what the top few prefered choices are and just make a decision from there. When push comes to shove we are all doing this to have fun. No one has kidnapped your family and is threatening to hurt them if you don't finish in the 98th percentile of One-N-Done! Right? Because when push comes to shove you don't get any points for knowledge of the sport, it is all about timing. Like a little player stock market. Knowldge helps, but over thinking it is just going to do more harm than good. I've got my lucky poker chip and I'm ready!

    Good luck everyone in this last streach.

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    1. Haha! Right.

      Yep we're all having fun. For me analyzing things (even over-analyzing a gut feel) is still fun. Of course when it starts being unfun, I just pick a losing team and get the highest average PRA. And if I got non-fantasy things to do, I either miss a pick (once in 1-N-Done in Round 2) or miss a blog entry (yesterday).

      And everyone should only commit time and brain space only up to the point before it starts getting unfun.

      As for picking a Heat or Pacer off bench, I suggest the latter.

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  2. Very well said, VitalViper!! Most people who pick a good player & the player does poorly, doesn't necessarily mean it was a bad pick, right pick, just bad timing.... Trust me, I know all about, right pick, bad timing!! D. Howard, when he got tossed in round 1, netting me a whopping 16 points!! Like you said, go with your gut &/or your first instincts...

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    1. And also, picking a bad player and the player does great, doesn't necessarily mean it is a good pick, just good timing.

      As for shadowing another, I was hoping somebody would realize it is me I want people to overtake, since you guys can read my picks. I get the thrills when somebody else is competing against me and breathing down my neck. Sorry that's just me hehe.

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  3. Honestly today I was about too go with Lance Stephenson like you said. But no offense your last few picks haven't been great so I decided to go with my guy. Roy Hibbert. I think from here on out I will be going with my own picks. Thanks for the help so far.

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    1. No offense taken :)
      Glad you got Hibbert at 40.
      Keep posting so that others may got tips from you that I'll miss.

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  4. Yea I'm still going to check everyday because your advice is helpful. But it's time I pull away from my league right now. Because in the finals everyone's going to have the same picks. Tomorrow you have Tony Allen. I have Zach Randolph. Down 0-2. Going home. He's been a disappointment so far. Time for him to turn it around. He also does really well at home. Lowest is 20 and then the second lowest is 32. Even if somehow Memphis were to win I would still have all of the Heat. Enough for the Finals.

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    1. I have a good feeling about Zach at home. Yup you may pick him in Game 3. I'll have him in Game 4 in 1-N-Done only. Not much difference which game, as long as they lose the series.

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