Does History Repeat Itself?

History repeating itself is silly. It never repeats itself. Two different occurrences from two different times may look similar, but I assure you that they are different. Coincidence, that is the proper word.

Last year in the playoffs, Heat won Game 1 and then Pacers stole Game 2. Is it coincidence that this year the same thing happened? Yes, it is just a coincidence. Is history repeating itself? Of course not -- certainly that does not mean that the Pacers will win Game 3 and then lose the rest of the way.

Just look at it as what it is in this current series. Tied 1-1. Heat won Game 1 by a thread (LeBron's layup). Pacers won Game 2 not by much (LeBron's blunders). It is now a best-of-5 series. I still pick the Heat to win, but I understand that some of you now think that the Pacers now smell blood and have homecourt advantage. This does not bode well for my pick plan, as a 7-game series is starting to be more like it.

I am still saving the Heat's Big Three and the Pacer's David West (and Paul George in 1-N-Done) for either the Finals or later in this series. My next available Pacer is D.J. Augustin who averages 8 PRA -- that does not sound too encouraging.

How about if I pick a Heat player? The Big Three is off limits. My next available Heat players are Ray Allen and Mario Chalmers. Ray Allen has been terrible against the Pacers' defense, and based on his game logs, he may have better production against the Spurs so it may be wise to save him for the Finals.

And so my pick goes to Mario Chalmers. Notice how my reasons for picking him has nothing to do with him ;) UPDATE: Chalmers' shoulder is still dinged up. So for the 2nd night in a row, I am changing my pick at the last minute... the Birdman! Chris Andersen, fly!

By the way, Sam Young sprained his ankle. If you think the Heat will win the series, pick Paul George now as he will be absorbing some of his backup Young's minutes. Another option is Lance Stephenson, who normally backups as shooting guard but now will also handle the small forward position whenever Paul George sits down.

Now if you think Pacers will win the series, now is the time to pick LeBron James. He should be veering to rectify himself for that Game 2 loss.

20 comments:

  1. You can also consider Anderson in the mix. His PRA has to be thrown out for the two previous series since he's getting more minutes and has a much higher usage rate. He was pretty close to Chalmers in the last game 30/36 PRA and it was an off game for rebounding for him.

    That's really the problem with team's like the Heat, after their big 3 any supporting players are a gamble.

    Ray Allen won't hit double digits this entire series his game is too limited and with Hibbert on the floor the Pacers don't have to collapse like most teams and can stay at home on shooters.

    I'm team "Pacers win" but I expect a 6 -7 game series so although LeBron should have a big game 3 (likely getting double digit assists) I'm saving him for an elimination game (us Boston fans sadly know how big he can come up when faced with going fishing).

    I'm scratching my head how to play it out going forward. I used Stephenson in game 1, then Anderson in game 2. Pretty much as stall tactics to see how the matchups played out.

    Currently thinking:

    Game 3: Hibbert
    Game 4: Wade (Pacers 2-1), Hill (Miami 2-1)
    Game 5: LeBron (Pacers 3-1), West (if tied), George (Miami 3-1)
    Game 6: best of LeBron/Wade/Bosh (Pacers 3-2)
    best of George/West/Hill (Miami 3-2)
    Game 7: Hill or Bosh

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    1. I like your pick plan.
      This is how everyone should do it. Not the names per se, but the ifs and thens and planning ahead.

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    1. PS. The Sam Young injury is a factor, but not really one I expect to have much of an impact either in the series or George's stats.

      George will likely play more minutes like he did in game 1 the rest of the series, so there might be a slight uptick, but sometimes that evens out since the longer minutes tend to decrease efficiency.

      Young is only averaging 9 minutes and those are split between spelling George and Stephenson. Expect Gerald Green who is 6'-8" and super fast, and athletically an improvement over young, to pick up some of those minutes...but he's scrawny so it will be interesting to see how the Pacers adjust if LBJ and Wade try and bring him into the post and if he can handle the pressure of the series after not being used much.

      If Green proves a liability, expect George, Stephenson, Hill and Augustin to split Young's 9 minutes. Indy knows it only wins this game playing big and with their starters on the floor as much as possible. It's going to business as usual with or without Young.

      Oh, Danny Grainger...if only you were healthy this series wouldn't even be close.

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    2. On games missed by Young this postseason (4), considerable rise in Stephenson's minutes. George's as well. Not much with Green's.

      Missing Granger may have been blessing in disguise coz of George's emergence.

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    3. Nice stats on Young.

      Definitley agree in the blessing in disguise. Though having Granger back for the playoffs would have been sick.

      Really hope they can keep this Pacers team together. They're a true PG away from being incredible.

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  3. I would not go with Chalmers, unless I had no one to pick from. Especially not when series is tied 1-1 and at IND. I feel as if he won't get as many touches. I'm going with Stephenson. He has been amazing at home except for first game of the Hawks series which is understandable. He was nervous. He knows it's time to take advantage and he won't let the team down. I expect him to be aggressive on the glass and look to score. And he had 38 PRA in his last game at IND. He always gets at least 20 at home which is good enough for me. And with Sam Young out he might get an extra 2 minutes or so.

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  4. i have Indy's Big 3 (George, Hibbert, West) and Miami's Big 3 (Wade, LBJ, Bosh) left, but I've used Hill and Stephenson in these first two games - so I'm in really good shape. However, I find it very tough to pick tonight....

    Indiana has been very, very impressive so far in this series and I really think they have a chance at upsetting the Heat, but I'm still not completely sold on that one so I don't know who to pick tonight...
    I think Hibbert is overdue for a, well, "Hibbert Game" (played really well these first two games so I'm expecting a rather bad game from him tonight), I definitely wanna save George and so it's either David West (who DESTROYED the Heat during the regular season and had a rather bad game 2 for his standards) or one of the Heat role players. RayRay has been playing really inconsistent so far this series and would be a huge gamble, much like the Birdman would be, and with Chalmers and his shoulder issue I'm rather reluctant to pick him..

    So, any advice? right now i'm leaning towards West or Ray Allen..

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    1. Ok, so I just read that Wade MIGHT be suspended for Game 3 because of the "elbow" he threw at Lance Stephenson. If that was really the case, Ray would be my pick tonight as he seems to be the obvious replacement in the starting lineup. But I actually don't think Wade is gonna get suspended for that... which means I'm still facing the same dilemma

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    2. Thanks gm nr.1 for that tip on Wade.

      You mentioned, you are not yet sold on the Pacers winning. That means you should go with your default (which I presume Heat winning the series).

      Between West and Ray Allen, it has to be West. Remembet that Ray has been playing in the majn lineup as a wing cutter whether he starts or not. The Pacers have already figured out how to cancel Ray. Giving him more minutes just means more chance for the Pacers to stop the Heat.

      You are right, he will get a lot of minutes, a few more PRA will sprout here and there.

      But what if Heat wins the next three (improbable but let's just put in the worst case scenario), you will miss out on one of your Pacer Big Three. Bettet use one of them now. West is a good choice.

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  5. Thanks for the advice.
    I'll wait to see what the status is on D-Wade, but if he's playing I'm gonna go with West, who already was my first choice.

    It's just that I really want the Pacers to win this series and beat the Heat, but what has me doubting that, is the fact that they LITERALLY do not have any type of bench production that shows up in the stat sheet.
    Augustin is really inconsistent, Hansbrough had his best game of the playoffs in Game 1 with 16 PRA, Gerald Green isn't playing at all, Sam Young is injured, as you mentioned, but he doesn't bring anything to table, besides his defense, anyway - just like Mahinmi.
    So if any of the Pacers Big 3 gets into foul trouble or has an off-night, they just have no chance to win the game, in my opinion, and that's why I'm still not sold on the Pacers winning this series, no matter how good they've played in these first two games in South Beach.

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    1. Great points all around.

      That's really the fun of this game and the ECF series. But it actually works both ways. If LeBron, Wade or Bosh were to get into foul trouble or hurt, or in this case possibly suspended, their bench is anemic and hasn't proven they can do anything against the best 3pt line D in the league.

      I'm torn between Hill, Hibbert and West tonight.

      I really want Indy to advance but Hibbert won't put up 29 pt 10 rpg against SA...so I'm definitely using him tonight. But he's rarely been consistent and prone to drop offs after big games so after a caree night he might come back to earth tonight.

      West is due for a breakout game...but I'd hate to use him now if Indy advances. Hill is super inconsistent, but a low risk placeholder if this series goes 6 or 7.

      Ah the choices.

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    2. yeah, it's really tough in the ECF this time around.

      You have a good point there, but LeBron is just too good right now, so the bench guys for Miami don't really have to do all that much, 'cause Bron is just gonna have the ball in his hands all the time and he'll set them up just fine. All they gotta do is make those shots - but that hasn't worked out all that well so far against Indiana's D.

      I'd shy away from Hibbert tonight - just my guts telling me that he'll not have that kind of a night tonight like he had in Game 2 - and as it seems as if D-Wade is going to start tonight I'ma go with West tonight. I agree, he's due for a breakout game so I sure hope it's gonna be this one ;)

      My 2 cents: If I were you I'd go with Hill tonight - like you said, low risk and you can wait and see how this one goes tonight. And I also think he's gonna play more like he did in Game 2, rather than Game 1.
      But like I said, that's just my opinion.

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  6. I´ve been away for the weekend. What did I miss?
    SA won in MEM? Whoops.
    IND won in MIA? WTF?

    Let´s see... I had Conley (27, not too good) and Stephenson (worst of the starters). Hmm... fitting.
    Next: In the West it´s easy. I will pick my remaining Grizzlies, starting with Pondexter, followed by Bayless. Although I might switch to a Spur in game 5.
    In the East? No fricking idea. It´s going to be Hill next because I am still not sold on the Pacers advancing. But if they go up 2-1 like they did last year, I might have to pick Wade or Bosh.

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    1. Let's hope Heat wins next game.
      I wanna see LeBron vs Spurs, Part Two.

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    1. Hey Ivo!
      Paul if DTTF.
      Hibbert if 1-N-Done.

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    2. I'm afraid George will have a difficult task stopping LBJ. He will be on atack mode and could put George in foul trouble.

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    3. See, that will not change in Games 4 to 7.
      LBJ in attack mode. George always be threatened of foul trouble.

      Or you can go Hibbert in the meantime. That's a safer pick for you.

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