- Spencer Hawes (18 PRA)
Elton Brand (12 PRA, inconsistent 23 PRA).
- Kevin Garnett (31 PRA)
- Rajon Rondo (31 PRA)
- Brandon Bass (17 PRA)
Ray Allen (15 PRA)
|Game 7||Game 1||Game 2||Total|
|Pick Garnett||Celtics Win||Garnett 31||Rondo 31||Bass 17||79|
|Celtics Lose||Garnett 31||Hawes 18||Filler 15||64|
|Pick Hawes||76ers Win||Hawes 18||Filler 15||Filler 15||48|
|76ers Lose||Hawes 18||Garnett 31||Rondo 31||80|
To explain, the above table shows the possible picks in Game 7 and two future games in the Conference Finals. A filler pertains to any player in the pool that is left. Note that if a star from the winning team (say Heat) is picked in the conference finals, then that would mean a filler replaces him in the Finals. So that means, the filler slot still is valued as a filler in terms of value received in the end.
To simplify the four scenarios, here is the table..
|3-game Value||Celtics Win||76ers Win|
The best and worst case scenarios are present in the Hawes row. That's a difference of 32 PRA. Now if you look at the Garnett row, the worse case scenario there (64) is just 18 pts below the best case scenario of Hawes. Even the next best scenario of 77 is not that far off from 80. Clearly from these, I am inclined to pick Garnett.
Now game theory does not end there. The results are paired with the probability of the Celtics winning or the inverse. For me there is 70% chance the Celtics will win because they are playing in Boston. If multiplied (70% with the Celtics win, and 30% with the 76ers win, then adding across rows), a resulting table will still show a Garnett pick makes more sense than a Hawes pick. Now try and play around with the probabilities, the Garnett pick will still look good. Thus, he gets my pick even if I think the Celtics will win this series.
By the way, Garnett is an unrestricted free agent after this playoffs. That is why he is playing well (for the next contract) and that is why he will keep playing well. Especially in Game 7. The last Game 7 he played versus the Hawks (note: on the road), he got 44 PRA. Even if I don't get that much, I'll be content with a 30 PRA from him.
Rondo is not a bad pick too. He'll rip it out and will play very well at home. His Game 7s (19, 24, 26,32, and 24 most recently) are not that bad. Just got to get the jitters out, I guess.
Cross your fingers!