Changing Minds

I must say, that was an unbelievable performance from Rajon Rondo. 44 points. 8 rebounds. 10 assists. 62 PRA! I imagine that the 10% who picked him are drooling over that record-breaking line of statistics (no one has ever done that many points, rebounds and assists in NBA playoff history!). That's worth about 2- or 3-game swing in their favor.

What a waste though for the Celtics, who are now down 0-2. I have a strong feeling that they will win Game 3. Boston fans will be cheering their hearts off for their squad. Their game plan versus the Heat are working, and they just have to keep at it. Expect another good game from Rondo (but maybe just 20+ points). I expect a bounce back effort from Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, as Heat will adjust to Rondo, opening up the middle and the wing. Ray Allen has finally had one whole good game and is now safe to be picked for around 20 PRA.

I have long picked Dwyane Wade for Game 3. Then hours before this time of writing, I worried about Wade's stats against the Celtics which are seemingly down. Though he still gets 30+ PRA, I feel the Celtics are defending him well by denying him the ball. And so I looked at his stats this season and last year's (2 seasons he has with LeBron). He's had mediocre games against the Celtics in general -- that thought gave me the notion that we may never see a 40 PRA from him in this series. The Celtics certainly know how to limit him (at least limit to 30+ PRA). Then I looked at his stats last year against the Spurs and they are better, and due to his injuries this shortened season, the Spurs have not yet seen Wade play up close. I thought about saving him for the Finals.

So I hit the X button on Wade in the DTTF interface, and then started pondering between Brandon Bass and Ray Allen. Allen as I mentioned already had one whole good game and is not showing effects of his ankle injury anymore. However, I thought the flight back to Boston would add to his fatigue, and that he will be better in Game 4 after one full day of rest at home. That leaves me with Bass, who I thought despite of his inconsistency had good games at home this postseason. So I was taking the risk and clicked on Bass for my pick of that game.

Then after a 3-hour nap, I was woken up in at midnight saying to myself, "What was I thinking!?!?" Because of a few new factors, I was willing to replace a very good pick with an inconsistent one. And to add it all up, I completely ignored the original reasons I picked Wade for Game 3, the majority of which are his away stats and the absence of Chris Bosh (somebody still needs to take up the slack). Weighing the benefits of picking him now greatly trumps the benefits of picking him later. So I re-changed my mind and in effect sticking with the plan. Wade it is.

3 comments:

  1. Why betting on Bass if Wade is avaible???
    Uhmmmmm,... I'm going with Allen (it's Allen or Bass)... cross all your fingers!!!!!

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  2. Oh man, i was thinking of picking between Paul Pierce and Rondo for that game 2, i picked Pierce. Man i was kicking myself for that hah, but Paul had solid numbers, got to the 30's for only the 4th time these playoffs i think, but i really could have used Rondo's big game, damn.

    Got Rondo for game 3, i hope he plays the entire game like he did in game 2 and gives me big 40+ numbers.

    Nice job on the Chalmers pick Taong, great steal outside the big 3.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Rebound, I was expecting 20+ PRA with Chalmers but the +10 bonus is welcome. If the Heat continue to dare Rondo to shoot, he'll fire it up again. Good luck with him!

      quark, sometimes I overthink it. If the Wade pick was a snake, it already bit me right in my face for intentionally ignoring it :))

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