Too Late To Pick Bosh?

NBA.com Expert Pick
Chris Bosh

Here is Bosh's split statistics..
2011 Playoffs         PRA 28.7 (18.6/8.9/1.1)
Series vs the Bulls   PRA 30.8 (22.0/7.6/1.2)
Season Home           PRA 29.5 (19.2/8.6/1.7)
Season Away           PRA 28.3 (18.2/8.1/2.0)
Season vs the Mavs    PRA 29.5 (20.5/8.0/1.0)
Season Away @ Dallas  PRA 32.0 (22.0/8.0/2.0)
Season Home vs Dallas PRA 27.0 (19.0/8.0/0.0)

The reason I showed these is that Bosh's production doesn't seem to follow a trend nor pattern. In the regular season, he is only slightly better at home than away, but against the Mavs he was better away. Note though that they played the Mavs only twice so we can't really depend on that statistic.

One statistic I would like to highlight is his series with the Bulls. Of the 15 games he played so far in these playoffs, he only had two breakthrough games with 30+ points and both were against the Bulls. Aside from those, he was average in most games, and was below average in about 3 games (2 against the Celtics). That is why it may be too late to pick him as his best series may already be behind him.

For those who are following what the NBA.com Expert picked, he has elected to go with Chris Bosh this game. I am not sure why, but maybe because Bosh is his best available player. He already exhausted picks to James, Wade and Nowitzki in previous rounds.

The Mavs used a lot of zone defense during the regular season for which James and Wade shot poorly against. Bosh though was the one who kept on defeating that zone which explains his high PRA against the Mavs. While this does not tell you when to pick him, this does tell you that you are safe to pick Bosh without the need to second guess if he will produce or not. Surely, he will produce here in this series.

Here is a wonderful article from CNNSI discussing what happens when the Heat has the ball. It gives a lot of kudos to Bosh and how he will thrive in this series.

For those who are deliberating when to pick James and Dirk, you can add the factor of history in their only Finals appearance.
  • James got swept by the Spurs in 2007, so he'll want to get 1 game win ASAP. So Game 1.
  • Dirk in 2006 never won in Miami, so he will be wanting to get 1 road game. So Game 1.
Oh okay that didn't help hehe! Just messing with your head. I also know that James is a show-off and plays better on the road, so I will be picking him later in Dallas.

My pick for this game...
Week 7, May 31:
Dwyane Wade

Dwyane Wade is nursing a shoulder injury that he and his coach say is not bothering him. A friend who follows the Heat religiously told me that Wade had his shoulder corrected during the rest between the series. I am guessing he went to a physio and had some nerves pinched. Shrugs, I am not sure. What I know is that his shoulder will not get a better rest during this series than what was given to it these past few days. So that shoulder, in theory, will perform better early and will degrade as the series drags along.

If you are still not sure who to pick, go with the player with the best PRA. Good luck with your pick!

10 comments:

  1. I'll use Bosh in this series but not in GM1. Marion or Barea tonight.

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  2. barea in game 1 before heat adjusts to his pick n roll

    marion in game 2 because he did will in miami in their one game there.

    i'd imagine that's what i'll do. however, i still have the big 2, chandler and marion, before barea. if both teams win 1 game each, i'm picking barea outright.

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  3. Generally, game 2 is the best for Lebron...

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  4. Bosh on Thursday for me. It may be now or never time, but I hope the Mavs find some O.

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  5. lebron and bosh are good for game 2. safe picks.

    still holding my breath. still one road game to steal before foing to dallas.

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  6. I have to considered using D Wade or James for game 2. Anyway, Bosh put up a good 31 PRA which I hope he could perform.

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  7. dwade, because of the shoulder problem. use him at the earliest.

    lebron, because of the strategy: best player available playing at home. but he is a road warrior so maybe later.

    bosh, yeah maybe go ahead pick him. however, he is a native of dallas. so he may play better with relatives watching him in game 3-5.

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  8. Agreed, I already use Bosh for game 1, so I decided to pick Wade for game 2. Only 3 stars left which are D Wade, Nowitzki and Lebron James. Maybe Chandler, Barea, Haywood, or Peja could picked up the slack if there will be a game 5.

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