Dive Or Soar

My current 88th percentile is below from where I was at this point last year in the Drive To The Finals. Many of the players above me will dip down the rankings because they already picked the best players in Round 1 and 2. Even so, I cannot go higher than 90% if I just go with the flow. Beating last year's 95% is now far from my reach, so I have decided to make drastic changes to my strategy to this game.

The assumption is that if I keep on selecting the common sense picks (the hot pick and/or the best player), my rate of ascent will be similar to others who will think the same way. If the NBA.com expert (drukman23) picks Terry for May 19 and if 20% of the people follows, there are 2 options leading to 4 results (Note: presume we are all within 88%)..
  • Pick Terry
    • If he exceeds expectations, all us 20% soars in unison
    • If he plays poorly, all us 20% dives in unison
  • Pick someone else
    • If Terry performs better than my pick, the other 20% soars pass me
    • If my pick performs better, I soar pass the other 20%

Joining a bandwagon will not give me any advantage. It is only in being different will I have a chance of getting the upper hand.

However, choosing differently will be a great risk -- dive or soar. The reason I am doing this is that for me this year, 94% and 70% are same. I set out to beat my former 95% and anything short of that is unacceptable. (And because this is a just a free game where I can get into this type of risk).

So, I will deliberately avoid picking the same as the NBA.com expert, nor select a hot pick. This started with Dirk (not from the losing team), originally LeBron (not a top 2 pick that day), changed to Bosh (not a hot pick either), and next with Kidd (not in top 2 most popular). The Dirk pick bode well, but the Bosh pick didn't -- that's how risky this route is. Of course, I will still make sure that no matter how unorthodox my pick is, it should still makes sense.

For you, I will still dole out some alternate picks so you can still be guided accordingly. I recommend everyone else to stick to what they think is right. Do not get blinded by any NBA.com expert or any blogger like me. Trust your instincts.

DTTF Superstars put their pens, their papers and their fantasy on the line. They have spent days training and have a month worth of experience. But what entertains you tears their fun apart. So cheer for them, admire them, believe in them, but leave the action to them. Please DO NOT try this at home.

10 comments:

  1. tao- Terry did about as well he is going to on Tues 5/17 for me. You noted that on an earlier blog.
    Ok, maybe it's time to pick Harden.

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  2. yep, i will still mention picks that make sense. terry sure did what was expected (he backed his own claim too). harden is still a good pick especially that he is from a losing team. however, i will pick him after i see him get back to his 20+ PRA. he sucked a little in Game 1.

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  3. tao- Yep, harden was below par in GM1, but the Thunder need to find another scorer while Westbrook is ice cold.

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  4. oh westbrook will bounce back, believe me. as durant said, we can bet our house on it. actually westbrook playing well will benefit harden. westbrook's 3 assists sucked big time. so yeah, come to think of it, harden is a good pick in game 2 if westbrook distributes the ball well.

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  5. I think you should pick players without looking the expert pick. Sometimes you will coincide, sometimes not...
    For today I have 4 mavs and 2 okc... Picking Harden or Ibaka drive to the risk to have no players if OKC wins the series... I've decided to pick Terry... and surprise!! The expert pick Terry too. Do I have to change my mind?? Certainly NO.

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  6. No you don't need to change. You trusted your instinct. That's perfectly fine.

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  7. harden was the best pick today!

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  8. indeed! hey vapor, how do you feel about your harden pick? :D gratz!

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  9. tao- Thanks, I tend to go with my gut. Harden is erratic so some luck was involved.
    quark- Playing Harden now does leave me with less Thunder options but IMO, you can't keep stashing the best players.

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  10. hope harden does that for me in Game 5 (while losing).
    ::crossfingers::

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