In day 1, only Dwight Howard had the better PRA (66) than my pick LaMarcus Aldridge (35) among the losing teams. I still think Orlando will give up a fight, but if they lose the series Dwight would have been the right pick. If Orlando moves on, LaMarcus was the right pick.
In day 2, I picked Zach Randolph (42 PRA), and only Kobe Bryant had a better PRA (43) among the teams that lost that day. Of course, you cannot really expect the defending champion Lakers to lose the whole series. If the Lakers does win the series, Chris Paul would have been the right pick (54).
In day 3, I picked Danny Granger (25 PRA). Notice that 25 is not that high of a PRA, but during that day his was the highest among the losing teams. If the Pacers lose the series (and they will), picking Granger was spot-on.
So as of April 18, this is my standing..
Now with my pick... I am not touching the series of Grizzlies@Spurs and Hornets@Lakers by virtue of the uncertainty that was brought about by the game 1 upsets. I'll zoom-in on the Nuggets as the Thunder poise to take that series. Only 2 Nuggets are worth looking at: Nene Hilario (31) and Danilo Gallinari (24). Raymond Felton (22) may be worth the gamble while he is still taking minutes away from the injured Arron Afflalo, but I wouldn't want to bet on someone who comes off the bench.. yet.
Just basing on Game 1's box score, Nene may be the better pick. He played well against the Thunder but I don't think he can repeat that performance vs Perkins. It may be worthwhile to note that Nene's away PRA and career vs the Thunder is only 24. I expect a little letdown as the Thunder adjusts.
Gallinari, on the other hand, has a better away PRA (22.8) than home PRA (21.7). I also think that Arron's absence in the wing makes Gallinari take up the slack, so I am picking up Gallinari before Arron is forced to come back to the lineup. Note that while I'm picking Gallinari, I still predict Nene will have the better PRA on Wednesday. This pick is highly based on the away PRA, and that I'm reserving Nene for a home game when I can get more benefit from him. It's all in the timing.
Week 1, April 20: